Research from groups like the IEA and various mining analysts suggests that to meet Net Zero by 2050, the world will need to mine more copper in the next 25 years than has been mined in the last 5,000 years.
New copper mines are not popping up either. It takes an average of 16 years to move a copper mine from discovery to first production. --Peter Clack
Solar panels and turbine blades are destined to become the actual 'fossils' from a bygone age.
— Peter Clack (@PeterDClack) May 1, 2026
Much of this unusable rubble will lie in the ground for thousands of years—a legacy of a modern world where recycling is a myth used to prop up a narrative of free wind and sunshine.… pic.twitter.com/9byhvSVaGO
Solar panels and turbine blades are destined to become the actual 'fossils' from a bygone age. Much of this unusable rubble will lie in the ground for thousands of years—a legacy of a modern world where recycling is a myth used to prop up a narrative of free wind and sunshine. Despite decades of hysteria and trillions of dollars spent on renewables - coal, oil and gas still produce 81% of the world's primary energy. It's around 10 to 30 times more expensive to recycle a solar panel than to landfill it. Hundreds of thousands of decommissioned wind turbine blades the size of Boeing 707 wings, are never going to be recycled. High-purity silicon used in wind solar is produced by heating quartz (silica) with carbon (usually in the form of coal, coke, or wood chips) in a submerged-arc furnace at temperatures exceeding 2,000°C. Nothing can justify the colossal electricity volume needed to run the furnaces, which, in the world's largest solar-producing regions, are still supplied by coal-fired grids. Recycling costs far more than any benefits. A 90% figure often cited refers primarily to the steel towers and internal wiring, which are valuable. But the 'green' challenge remains with the composite blades and the economic gap in solar recovery. A technology can be 'recyclable' in a lab but a costly 'liability' in the real world if the market for those recovered materials doesn't exist without massive subsidies. While solar panels may pay back the 'joules', they don't necessarily pay back the quality of energy (baseload/dispatchable) used to create them. With a decommissioning cycle occurring before 2050, we are essentially stuck in a perpetual loop of high-energy manufacturing swallowing the very fuels we are trying to replace. Research from groups like the IEA and various mining analysts suggests that to meet Net Zero by 2050, the world will need to mine more copper in the next 25 years than has been mined in the last 5,000 years. New copper mines are not popping up either. It takes an average of 16 years to move a copper mine from discovery to first production. We are significantly behind the curve for the volume required for EVs, wind turbines, and massive grid expansions. Environmental regulations and permits often stretch that 16-year average out. This creates a paradox where 'green' regulations slow down 'green' mineral extraction. It isn’t just copper; a single 3 MW wind turbine requires approximately 2 tons of rare earth magnets. We use massive diesel-burning fleets to mine the minerals for 'clean' energy. We are demanding a 500% increase in the production of minerals like lithium, graphite and cobalt by 2040. As we dig deeper for lower-grade ore, the energy required to extract each ton of metal rises, creating a feedback loop where we need more energy just to get the materials to build 'energy-saving' tech. The industrial cost of waste from high-tech civilisations must eventually hit a geological wall. Are we planning for that wall or still accelerating towards it?
