Monday, November 13, 2023

with the Agricultural Revolution, the cultivation of crops, and the rise of a particular non-essential macronutrient starting to take up more and more of the diet: that would be carbohydrates.

"they never thought of cavities as a disease because it's so normalized,"  --Kevin Stock, DDS.  I wonder if the dental industry had anything to do with that?  

There is no need for dentists in the Stone Age.

We have a hard time keeping our teeth for one lifetime today but teeth preserved for millions of years in the fossil record; they are 97% mineral.  Often when we look at archeology and like you, I'm fascinated with dental archeology, the fossil record, we see some very interesting things.  The most fossils we have are teeth of these skeletons, and so we learn a lot about our past through the teeth.  Teeth tell us a lot about what we should or shouldn't be eating.  It's often the canary in the coal mine.  We put the wrong things in the mouth, and we see the problems first happen in the mouth.  For example, we'll see gingivitis first, and then we'll see . . . , and by the time you have a heart attack then we finally see the same etiology ending up as a heart attack but a little bit late.   Prior to the Agricultural Revolution, roughly 12,000 years ago, humans are homo sapiens . . . the dental record, like you said-- no cavities, no abscesses; if you had cavities, we could see that in the teeth abscesses.  All 32 teeth fit in.  The wisdom teeth, you know, we have 32 teeth, people may not realize that, but the wisdom teeth they were fitting in our mouths.  There was plenty of room for them, whereas today, . . . mine got taken out when I was 13 years old.  I didn't have room for them.  So what's going on here?  The root cause here is diet mostly.  So 12,000 years ago, a big change that we see in the fossil record coincides with the Agricultural Revolution, the cultivation of crops, and the rise of a particular non-essential macronutrient starting to take up more and more of the diet: that would be carbohydrates.  Carbohydrates are the necessary ingredient for bacteria in your mouth to ferment into acids that lead to cavities and abscesses.  So that's what we see in the fossil record and we also see it in an interesting thing so that way you go to the dentist one of the things that your dentist will do is they start scraping on your teeth you know what they're doing they're scraping off dental calculus and, you know what?  That actually also survives in the fossil record. The dental calculus is actually like a snapshot of your oral microbiome in time.  And so what scientists have been able to do is sequence dental calculus throughout history, and we see prior to Agricultural Revolution when we sequence dental calculus there's . . . what we have is this certain oral biota.  At the turn of the Agricultural Revolution, we see that calculus changed, we see a rise of cariogenic strands of bacteria, notably strep mutant bacteria.  Then we see a second major change that coincides with the Industrial Revolution, where not only do we have a rise in these cariogenic bacteria, but they become predominant and so almost all these fossil records post-industrial revolution we have dysbiosis in the mouth and that's what's leading to the drastic fall in dental health, where cavities are today the most common disease in the world.  I recently said that on a talk I was given, and someone came up to me and said that statement startled them more than anything because they never thought of cavities as a disease because it's so normalized like if you don't have cavities, you are in the far minority.  So that's a little bit of the archeology.  

12:20  

The Lemon Monologue

Beef is a threat to the pharmaceutical industry and the processed food industry

Sunday, November 12, 2023

Men with 23 hours of sedentary activity per week are 64% more likely to die of heart disease

I better get my ass up and at 'em. 

"Red Wedding of Freight Volume Causing a "disintegration of globalization"?

freight volumes are one of the more reliable shadow indicators of a coming recession.  --Peter St. Orge, Ph.D.

Maersk is widely viewed as a global trade barometer. --Peter St. Orge, Ph.D.

A shipping analyst, Freight Waves, came out with a sobering report showing soaring bankruptcies among trucking and logistics firms as freight volumes crash.  In an age where many of us are skeptical about government statistics, freight volumes are one of the more reliable shadow indicators of a coming recession.  And keep in mind, we are just 6 weeks from Christmas, meaning this is usually the peak season for shipping.  Freight Waves CEO listed out the Red Wedding level of carnage:

30,000 employees out of work when trucking firm Yellow went down, followed by the bankruptcy of $4 billion dollar, VC-backed freight brokerage Convoy.  

Air Cargo operator, Western Global went down with $500 million in debt.

Freight broker, Surge, $200 million in revenue slumped.

North Carolina trucking company, Freight Works, took out 200 truckers. 

Texas-based, SEL, took out another 125.

California-based and family-owned, Certified Freight, took down 157.

40-year-old Montana trucking company, Meadowlark, left hundreds more jobless.

And Florida-based, Flagship, took out 455.

The list goes on from Vermont to Miami to California to Pennsylvania. 

Now, that is just the bankruptcies.  The layoffs are on top.

Maersk just laid off 10,000 workers and cut capital expenditure by $3.5 billion.  In other words, they'll be running down existing capital.  They did this because revenue fell by 50% among plunging freight costs and ships running half empty. Maersk is widely viewed as a global trade barometer, and the layoffs were so big they drove the Eurasia Review to fret about the quote "disintegration of globalization."  The prices across the 8 major global shipping routes have plunged by more than half this year, going from 3000 per 40 ft container to just 1400.  

Maersk's shipping rates are down 58%.

China's Costco is down 60%, and Japan's Ocean Network Express is down 62%.  

A report by Drewry forecasts the entire industry will lose $15 billion next year.  

Now this is feeding directly into trucking, which is the last mile.  In fact, going by employment, trucking is doing 3x worse than the 2000 recession which was itself much worse than the 2008 recession still not a recession though until Paul Krugman says it is. 

"So what's next?" brought to you by Unchained.

For shipping, the near term is pretty bleak with falling prices running into continuing inflation.  Some of this was inevitable after the epic pandemic-era run-up.  Remember, it was just 2 short years ago that newspapers were jammed with stories of blocked supply chains, Americans driving to Mexico for baby formula or cruising eBay for used washing machines, lest they wash their clothes in a creek.  At one point, the Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost to ship raw materials, hit almost 12,000, that's about 8x normal, that pulled thousands of new workers into trucking and shipping.  So Walmart at one point was offering $110,000 starting pay for truck drivers, and it launched dozens of major containers that are only now coming online.  That overhang is taking years, so freight analyst Alphaliner estimates shipping capacity will increase 8.2% this year, about 6x faster than demand even as the industry loses billions.  In short, shipping says a fairly brutal recession is incoming, while lockdowns once again have whipsawed an industry that millions depend on.  

As a recession intensifies, expect more pain.