Showing posts with label — Peter St Onge. Show all posts
Showing posts with label — Peter St Onge. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: one study by Cambridge University found that regulations have added between $6,000 and $7,000 to the cost of a car and have wiped out cheaper models altogether.

A speeding freight train of regulations is coming that will gut small businesses while climate mandates make pretty much everything that plugs in suck.  A new study by the Job Creators Network estimates that 1.2 trillion dollars in new regulations are about to hit Americans courtesy of Joe Biden; that would be on top of the estimated 1.9 trillion dollars we already lose to regulations.  Per household, that comes to $10,000 in new regulations on top of the $15,000 in regulations we already pay every year.  Put differently, 20 cents on the dollar you earn got snagged by regulatory costs; you never saw it.  Taxes are on top of that.  The new rules run the gamut from emissions to staffing and diversity to reporting requirements for global warming.  There are manufacturing restrictions on pretty much everything in your house.  So dishwashers, water heaters, ceiling fans, light bulbs, gas stoves, washing machines, and, of course, air conditioners.  One study by the Alliance for Consumers estimates the new rules will increase the cost of a washing machine by $200, a furnace by $500, and the cost of refilling your air conditioner by over $1,000; they could push some products, like gas stoves, out of existence altogether.  Now all of that is on top of existing regulations that already pushed all these things up by thousands.  For example, one study by Cambridge University found that regulations have added between $6,000 and $7,000 to the cost of a car and have wiped out cheaper models altogether.  Of course, none of that is a problem for the 1%.  They will still drive Bentleys and crank the heat up in winter, and it's a positive bonanza for the huge companies whose donations bought all of those lovely regulations.  As for the rest of us, wear another sweater and take the bus.  Beyond the crap products, this flood of regulations is driving tens of thousands of factories and businesses overseas.  To illustrate, the National Association of Manufacturers estimates that it currently costs $30,000 in Regulatory Compliance alone for every manufacturing worker.  For small manufacturers, the mom-and-pop, that actually comes to $50,000 in regulatory costs.  They can't spread it out over as many workers, so that is literally more than the salary and that goes to Regulatory Compliance alone.  Upcoming rules are targeting precisely these small businesses, most notoriously on climate disclosure, climate change procurement, basically locking small companies out of selling to the federal government, and a  "transparency rule on climate that would hit 11 million small firms with nearly 100 billion dollars in fresh costs."  Many of course will just give up and close shop.  The rules are part of 5,300 rules imposed since Obama.  Trump had briefly reversed the tide.  Remember he took out two regulations for every new one but Joe Biden's handlers have doubled down even out doing the famously destructive Obama in terms of job-crushing regulations that make everything you buy suck.  There is a rate of hope in an upcoming Supreme Court decision, called Loper V Raimondo, brought by a fishing boat that was forced to pay $700 a day for regulator ride-alongs.  If the decision comes in favor of the Fishers, it could dramatically rein in the federal rule Leviathan, obliging major rules to actually go through Congress instead of auto-spawning in the Deep State.  If not, the regulatory strangle will continue trillion by trillion until your jobs in China you furnished are just for show and you need a mortgage to buy a car made of tin cans.

Monday, June 17, 2024

The Mother of all Layoffs?

Sunday, May 26, 2024

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Across Germany, when clubs play electronic music the crowd spontaneously sings lyrics to the effect of "Germany is for Germans, foreigners out!"

Because of this, 

A populist movement in Germany is rising. 

Thursday, May 23, 2024

America's been at war for 222 out of its 239 years. Despite being a near-island with just two peaceful neighbors.

Friday, May 17, 2024

U.S. Dollar has lost 33% of its value since 2008, and 90% of its value since Nixon

2:50. But a dollar that's lost a third of its value since the 2008 crisis, and 90% of its value since Nixon, is never coming back meanwhile country is like China are watching like vultures biting their time as the dollar crawls slower and slower weighed down by trillion dollar deficits and a corrupt political system that competes to drain the treasury and hand the proceeds to activist sponsors we could fix it of course in a day pass a balance budget amendment put the FED back on gold or get rid of it all together unfortunately, if history is a guide, that will not happen without a crisis 

Monday, May 6, 2024

43% of small businesses can't pay the rent, Bloomberg reports. For restaurants, 52% can't pay the rent.

Thursday, April 25, 2024

To save America, UFC fighter Renato Moicano begs people to read Ludwign von Mises "Six Lessons," a series of lectures delivered in 1958 to Argentina to turn from dictatorship

Find Mises' 6 Lessons here

Lesson 1: Capitalism.

Lesson 2: Socialism.

Lesson 3: Interventionism. 

Lesson 4: Inflation.

Lesson 5: Foreign Investment.

Lesson 6: Politics and Ideas.

Economic Policy (Large Print Edition): Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow, Ludwig von Mises, 

Amazon reads

These chapters were originally delivered as lectures in Argentina in 1958, at the University of Buenos Aires, and later written up in prose. Mises had urged Argentina to turn from dictatorship and socialism toward full liberty, so there is a special urgency behind the cool logic employed here. The book's continued popularity is due to its clarity of exposition on the ways in which economic policy affects everyone.

It is a very good text for undergraduates studying economic policy, and for anyone who wants to gain a fundamental understanding of the interaction between market forces and government intervention.

Friday, April 19, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: The problem is the U.S. sanctions, particularly the effort to seize the assets of the Russian Central Bank. Those have put countries around the world on notice that their dollars are not safe

Here is the substack version with charts and graphs to make the point even more vivid. 

In case you've been living under a rock, gold prices have been on fire, jumping 20% in just the past 2 months.  That takes gold to a near doubling in price since pre-pandemic when it was meandering along at just $1500.  Yesterday it closed at $2,400, so if you don't own any gold it might make sense to get some in case it catches on; plus, Peter Schiff can now buy nice shirts The soaring price is a new experience for many gold investors, who are long accustomed to taking the slow and steady stairs while the stocks take the elevator.  Granted they take it up, they take it down, but here we are with stocks flat over the past two months and gold is up 20%.  In fact, at this point, gold has now matched the S&P 500 throughout the pandemic and, of course, it runs circles around the US dollar which is melting like ice cream in the sun thanks to federal spending a very obliging fed that has knocked a fifth off the dollar's buying power since the pandemic.

So what's driving the gold rally?  Three things: 1) inflation, Central Bank buying, and geopolitical tensions, including Russian sanctions with a guest appearance by some large mystery buyer rumored to be backed by the Chinese government.  Taking each in turn, we are coming up on 6 months now of rising inflation as the "transitory inflation" narrative turns out to have been a head fake.  I also mentioned recently how central banks are now openly admitting that they're preparing for some major financial catastrophe.  A senior Dutch Central Banker said the quiet part out loud a couple of months ago, and presumably, the crisis they have in mind is sovereign debt and the bank collapses that tend to come along for the ride.  And then of course the geopolitical tensions, above all Russia and China.  Now Russia itself is not very important; it really is Mexico with nukes with a fairly inconsequential economy.  The problem is the U.S. sanctions, particularly the effort to seize the assets of the Russian Central Bank.  Those have put countries around the world on notice that their dollars are not safe, that they can be seized anytime you look at Joe Biden funny.  That sends those banks to the next best asset, including gold.  Now gold is a pretty small market.  All the gold in the world is worth about $16 trillion, while all the government debt is worth closer to $100 trillion, so that means if money is moving out of government debt it can move the needle a lot on gold.  

At this point, Wall Street is falling over each other trying to up their gold targets.  So Goldman is saying $2,700; Bank of America says $3,000 by next year; UBS is saying $4,000 in the next "two to three years."  If that happens, we'll be looking at a near tripling of gold prices which would be the biggest rally since the 2008 crisis.  Before that, you'd have to go back to the 1970s but given inflation and sovereign debt are both getting worse and actually speeding up and given that wars and geopolitical tensions appear to be cranking out assembly-line style, these numbers may actually end up being conservative for gold prices.  Fundamentally, gold is insurance, and when the world is as badly run as it is today it's the last line of defense, and investors are finally realizing that.

Read the rest of the articles with charts and graphs and all the Gory details at www.prothstonge.com.

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: In fact, there's been literally zero job growth for native-born workers since 2018, of which, according to the Center for Immigration Statistics, roughly half actually went to the 9 million illegals.

The Biden jobs miracle keeps grinding away with a "Stellar March jobs report logging nearly 300,000 new jobs" that blew away even the most meth-pumped analyst on Wall Street and it makes the third month in a row of improbably tremendous job beats."  

Just one problem: it was all part-time jobs.  

Full-time jobs actually fell by 6,000, continuing a trend over the past year where full-time workers have collapsed by almost a million and a half, replaced by nearly 2 million part-time workers.  Put them together, and presto, job growth!

Sadly what real jobs are left apparently did not even go to native-born Americans.  In fact, they lost precisely 651,000 jobs last month, bringing the 3-month tally to nearly 1.5 million jobs lost by the native-born in 3 months.  In fact, there's been literally zero job growth for native-born workers since 2018, of which, according to the Center for Immigration Statistics, roughly half actually went to the 9 million illegals.  To give a sense of the scale, over 1 in 3 U.S.-born men with a high school degree are not working.  Things are fine of course for those with a bachelor's degree.  90% of them have a job, and no doubt cheap nannies and lawn care.  Keep in mind this is all best case because I've mentioned in a recent video the epic statistical divergence between official payroll numbers, sampled from companies, and the household numbers which actually asked people if they have a job.  The gap between the two currently stands at a daunting 9 million phantom jobs; maybe they exist, maybe they don't.  The BLS just extrapolates, they don't actually work here.  Now, I mentioned in recent videos that the most amazing thing about the grim jobs picture is that this is happening even with 2 trillion dollar deficits that should, in theory at least, be buying some jobs.  After all, spend that much money, and somebody gets paid; in other words, we can only imagine what's under the hood once you peel off the trillions pouring out of Washington.  Given both the border and Washington's checkbook are wide open, expect more millions of migrants to boost the jobs numbers while holding down wage gains for natives who do still have a job.  Just a few weeks ago Jerome Powell actually bragged about this on 60 Minutes crediting the open border for holding down blue-collar wages which he likes because it does the inflation dirty work for him, of course, at the expense of those blue-collar workers or former workers buying groceries on layaway while Paul Krugman lectures them about the Bidenomics miracle.  Do not expect much relief at least until the election, and even then it will be trench warfare against a Uniparty that is addicted to government spending, the regulatory Jihad on small business, and the cheap imported labor that keeps jobs and wages under control. 

Monday, April 15, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: On the ground, that means 7% mortgages and 24% credit card rates are here to stay, along with a frozen housing market and millennials splitting Ramen with roommates instead of getting married.

If you're still waiting for that transitory inflation to end, it could be a while.  Fresh CPI numbers just came out, and they were hot once again.  As Bloomberg puts it, "Obviously this is very bad news for Joe Biden, since we are starting to get into election territory."

First the numbers.  March CPI was 4.6% annualized while core CPI, which excludes food and gas, came in at 4.4% annualized.  The fed's latest darling statistics, so-called super core CPI, which takes housing out of the core, turned in a horrifying 8% annualized.  This marks the 5th month of rising inflation, starting back in those sweet days of October back when CPI was just 0.9% annualized, a simpler time after which they flipped to marching up month after bitter month even as the FED bragged about its progress.  This latest number was important because it probably closed the Fed's last hope for a rate cut this year since at some point they can't cut anymore because it would be blatant election interference.  So obvious even the FED wouldn't dare, at least it never has.  In fact, Fed guru, Larry Summers, thinks the Fed's next move could be rate hikes, so soft landing canceled.  On the ground, that means 7% mortgages and 24% credit card rates are here to stay, along with a frozen housing market and millennials splitting Ramen with roommates instead of getting married.  The big guys on Wall Street still have plenty of money, of course; do not worry about them.  They've salted it away at 3% during the pandemic or they're still tapping into trillions of cash sloshing around because Wall Street is paid by the Fed to park it there.  As for the broader economy, higher rates mean more bleeding out as the productive economy and native workers continue being gutted, leaving deficit spending and illegals to carry the headline spending and the headline job numbers that keep the illusion going even as the real economy transforms to government spending, government workers, and government welfare checks. As for the rest of the world, a Fed locked into high rates puts pressure on every country in the world, since higher U.S. rates drain potentially trillions out of their local confetti and into the U.S. Indeed within minutes of this CPI number, the yen plunged to nearly 153; the Euro lost a full penny, and China certainly dusting off the devaluation playbook, given it will be their last chance if Trump wins.  Now if China does devalue, it puts Chinese dumping on turbo, targeting what's left of American manufacturing.

At the beginning of the year just for short months ago, traders on Wall Street were predicting up to seven rate cuts this year.  In a glorious pirouette of that fabled soft landing, instead, we are now starting down the barrel of no rate cuts at all.  In fact, we've even got rate hikes on the table and the reason is simple: the FED did not fix inflation, they didn't make a dent in federal spending; it just continued; in fact, it accelerated.  Essentially, the FED took supply chain unwinds and post-lockdown reopening as a magic bullet for the easy out, and they abandoned the field hoping for the best.  So far this has played out exactly how it did last time the FED abandoned the job when oil fell in the 70s they got a second win for inflation that last time.  Anyway, turned out to be almost impossible to kill

Friday, April 12, 2024

Now each person down the line gets their money progressively inflated away. The last person in line is typically Social Security and pensioners, who get nothing but inflation.

The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, and we can thank the Federal Reserve.  Last week, the FED released a new study that wealth of the top 1% in America hit an all-time high of 45 trillion dollars; that's up 15 trillion or 50% from 2020.  So the pandemic has been just about the best thing to happen to America's rich in, oh, about a century.  Why? Because the pandemic set off the biggest tidal wave of money printing in American history, pumping out 6 trillion freshly printed dollars in just two years. That was roughly one in three of all dollars in existence before the pandemic.  That money of course pumped directly into financial markets, so stocks gained $10 trillion over the period (stocks capitalized flows), and many trillions more poured into bonds and government debt, treasuries, boosted by Federal Reserve purchases.  Why did it go to financial markets?  Because that's how the FED prints money.  Sadly, the FED does not print new dollars on a machine in the basement and hand them out to everybody; rather, it buys financial assets and it subsidizes bank lending. Quantitative Easing is buying assets direct, but most of the new money is actually created by banks who literally conjure it into existence when they make a loan.  And most bank lending goes to richer people.  In fact, since the FED repealed reserve requirements during the pandemic, Wall Street is now free to lend into existence literally any amount their greedy little hearts covet.  Once the rich get their money, via financial markets and loans, the money then slowly trickles down to the rest of America often long after prices have risen.  This is called the Cantillon effect, and it works like this: a rich guy gets a loan for a swimming pool, and the money is spun from nothing, remember, the banks just print it and then charge interest.  He takes that fresh money and hires a bunch of workers.  He pays them, and they go to McDonald's.  The McDonald's guy takes his dog to the vet; the vet buys a car.  The car salesman pays his mom's electric bill.  At each step, the new money spreads wider and wider, and it drives prices higher and higher.  Now each person down the line gets their money progressively inflated away.  The last person in line is typically Social Security and pensioners, who get nothing but inflation.  And normally that Cantillon redistribution is small enough the victims don't notice.  But in the pandemic they printed too much, giving us soaring prices for everything from food to medical insurance to, of course, housing costs.  Since the pandemic, the cost of owning the median home in America has doubled, hitting close to $3,000 which is half of median family income.  Many cities, if you didn't get a house before 2019, you will never own a house.  So, the wealthy got their house pumped, and the poor along with the young once again missed the boat.

The Fed driving inequality should not be a surprise, that is the purpose of a central bank.  That's why Wall Street bought the Federal Reserve for themselves back in 1914; they did not do it for the little guy.  So yes as long as we have a central bank, the rich will get richer and the poor will get inflation.  With the FED now eyeing a repeat of the 2022 inflation, America's rich should get ready for another big payday and everybody else can get ready for the fallout.  

At 7:42 PST, gold reached $2,416.

Thursday, April 11, 2024

Tuesday, April 9, 2024

CALIFORNIA has the highest unemployment in the country at 5.3%

California just slapped a $20 minimum wage on fast food joints.  Just days later, they are already announcing mass layoffs.  That's in the state with the highest unemployment in the country [at 5.3% in February].  The bill, which The Wall Street Journal characterized as "crazy" in an op-ed by a labor economist, raises California's already high minimum wage from $16 an hour to $20 an hour.  That would make it the highest minimum wage in the country.  The bill also sets up a so-called Fast Food Council, authorized to raise that minimum wage by another 3.5% every year forever. So it could be $30/hour in a decade.  In response, California food companies have frozen hiring and some are already announcing mass layoffs starting with delivery drivers now being outsourced to DoorDash and Uber Eats at least until they are gutted by a separate little California gem called AB40 that aims to destroy those jobs as well.  

It's worth noting that there are currently half a million fast-food workers in California who are now on the chopping block.  Those workers serve roughly 70% of Californians who get to face higher prices and abandoned locations.  Already approximately 1100 Pizza Hut drivers are set to lose their jobs with more already announced at the pizza chain, Round Table.  Of course, the drivers are just as startled at $20 bucks.  Every employee is on the menu.  Jack in the Box and Mexican chicken restaurant El Pollo Loco announced they'll be using robotics to automate cooking and cashier functions, including fry stations and making salsa. McDonald's has already put millions into designing fully automated stores opening their first fully robot store last year in response to the minimum wage hikes so there is no worker in the store at all.  Because machines don't have a minimum wage, activists claim the companies are just playing games, and that there will be no layoffs, which is partly because they've never run a business, but mostly because the minimum wage is a reliable vote winner and throws workers under the bus.  But by gum, it sounds good and it does get the votes.

2:10. So why does a minimum wage destroy jobs?  In short, another way to phrase a minimum wage is a ban on low-skill work.  In this case, any work that is worth less than $20 an hour.  Unfortunately, there are many low-skilled workers in America.  Thank a public school teacher who simply is not worth $20/hour.  For example, a low-margin broom factory might make money at $14 an hour but it goes bust at $20.  So if they cannot pay $14, there is no job at all.  Of course, it's not just that the job is gone; it becomes literally illegal for those people to have any job if they're not worth $20 an hour.  They'll either have to make do with cash under the table, perhaps hanging out at Home Depot waiting for day work or they will have to fall back on soup kitchens begging and welfare.

2:58. California is the leading edge of something that's happening all across the country, indeed all across the West, sacrificing low-income workers for socialist vote-buying gimmicks.  There are 4 million fast food workers in America.  There are over 50 million people who make under $20 an hour.  All of those workers are now on the chopping block.  

Thursday, April 4, 2024

PETER ST. ONGE: there are thousands like me who are eager to replace the lying activists who run our dying mediocrity

"Bloodbath" of Layoffs in Mainstream Media 

Tens of thousands of mainstream journalists are being laid off in what's being called an Extinction event for corporate journalism.  Of course for regular Americans that all sounds pretty fantastic given those corporate journalists have become woke Marxist activists whose main purpose is gaslighting voters into the revolution.  Meaning it might be a very good thing if those scribblers put away their keyboards and learn how to say "install drywall." 

The pace is now quickening with last week's wide-ranging layoffs at the LA Times once among America's most prestigious newspapers they laid off 20% of their staff and including their entire DC Bureau in an election year along with gutting Sports, Tech, Business, and even Breaking News, media's traditional bread and butter meanwhile BuzzFeed just shuttered its news division which was once worth 1.3 billion dollars and is now down 98%. Sports Illustrated just closed all together.  We've seen major layoffs at Time Magazine, The Atlantic, The Washington Post NPR, Bloomberg, and Conde Nast, which publishes the New Yorker and Vanity Fair even the New York Times cut 240 jobs after the gray lady lost tens of Millions last year in all according to Axios 20,000 media jobs were cut last year which is up six times from the previous year.  And so far in 2024, they appear to be accelerating.

So what's driving it?  In short, a loss of trust, which is turning off readers taking ad Revenue along with them after all people don't trust you they won't subscribe.  In fact, America's trust in media has plummeted to a record low with just 1 in 3 Americans saying they have any trust in the media.  A record high of Americans, so almost 40%, say they have zero trust in the media at all.  Just 29% of independent voters trust media and a dismal 11% of Republicans; of course, together those two groups make up over 2/3 of the country.  Even Democrats are losing faith with trust dropping 18 points since Cove it German especially by younger Democrats who no longer believe that journalists tell the truth.  Incidentally Trust in Media has fallen straight lines since 2018 which is when they threw off the mask of objectivity starting with Trump and then trying to cancel everybody from Alex Jones and Milo Yiannopoulos to all of us, converting themselves into the intellectual bodyguard of the Marxist Elite carrying water on everything from the vax to the BLM riots to, of course, transitory inflation and the miracle that is Bidenomics.  It is hard to rebuild trust after all that.  The corporate media isn't just dying; it is actively killing itself, replaced by grassroots news sources who are often more expert and certainly are more honest.  The news media will continue will continue attacking their readers; they'll continue trying to censor you, the same game plan that has been wiping them out and in the process progressively removing themselves from the conversation all together.  I'd actually expected to it to accelerate.  Elon Musk has built a distribution channel on X or Twitter, where the alternative media can finally compete on a level playing field with the dinosaurs.  For example, these daily videos get half a million views produced on an iPhone and a $100 mic and there are thousands like me who are eager to replace the lying activists who run our dying mediocrity.

Friday, March 15, 2024

America's Farmers are getting wiped out. Leaving hollowed-out communities that rival the rust-belt. According to the USDA, we’ve lost 140,000 farms just in the last 5 years. What’s driving it is inflationary costs, falling revenue, and green mandates.

Saturday, February 10, 2024

Does the Economy Need Migrants?

Tuesday, January 23, 2024

The UN just released its 2024 plans to give away $1.6 billion to the millions of illegals moving north via debit cards, bank transfers, and even "cash in envelopes."

Monday, January 15, 2024

DOES ANYONE COUNT THE COST ANYMORE? wind costs between 7 and 14 times more than fossils. And solar costs between 10 and 44 (!) times more.

The excess cost of these projects are not designed to provide people with energy.  The cost simply turns these politically correct projects into pet projects for the climate change crowd to say, "See.  See how efficient (NOT) this renewable is?"  And they're not even renewable, a complete misnomer.