Showing posts with label — Peter St Onge. Show all posts
Showing posts with label — Peter St Onge. Show all posts

Saturday, November 30, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: New York rents out entire migrant Hotel [the Roosevelt] to bailout Pakistan

The city of New York pays $220 million to rent the entire Roosevelt Hotel in Manhattan to house illegal migrants. The hotel is owned by the government of Pakistan, and the deal was part of a $1.1 billion IMF bailout package to help Pakistan avoid defaulting on its international debt. Prior to this sweetheart deal, the hotel had been closed since 2020, having long struggled with occupancy and in dire need of renovation.

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: if we're talking 7 million illegals, there are at least 16 million Americans under the age of 35 who are out of the workforce

WILL MASS DEPORTATION CRASH THE ECONOMY?  

Left wing media, or is it left over media, is in full blown panic over mass deportation which is overwhelmingly supported by voters and therefore will happen.  Government funded NPR warns deportation will destroy the construction industry.  Fast Company says it will cripple California, which is already crippled in many ways.  The New York Times conjures a dystopia of Americans being forced to mow their own lawn and, brace yourself clean your own house.  So, is it true, will we have to clean our own hotel rooms?  Now nobody actually knows how many illegal workers there are.  That's kind of the point of being undocumented.  But the doom porn industry is clustering around an estimate of 6 million from a 2022 study.  Add at least another million or two, courtesy of Brandon.  Breaking it down, they estimate about a quarter to about a million and a half work in construction; another quarter in manufacturing, warehousing; yet another quarter in restaurant, retail, and hotels; and the final quarter in services from landscaping to picking fruit to janitors.  Note what all these jobs have in common is they are overwhelming lilo killed they take months or even a week to master.  This is not engineers and doctors.  This matters because even if we're talking 7 million illegals, there are at least 16 million Americans under the age of 35 who are out of the workforce.  They're not working.  They're not going to school. They're not doing anything.  Many are on government benefits.  Many others live with their parents.  According to the US Census Bureau, the percent of Americans who are 18 to 35 living with their parents just hit the highest since the Great Depression.  So why are they living with Mom and Dad at 30? Because entry level jobs pay peanuts when you are competing with illegals.  One large study in California found the average hourly pay is $30 for native born Americans.  For legal immigrants, it's $28 an hour, almost as good.  For green card holders, it's $24 an hour, and for illegals, it is $16 an hour, which just so happens to be California's minimum wage.  So why are illegals so cheap?  Because the vast majority are unskilled or even illiterate; that's why they could not get in legally.  Also because many are not paying taxes; they're undocumented after all.  Either way they bring the wages to the floor.  In other words, it's not that Americans won't do these jobs, it's that they won't do these jobs for minimum wage.  Keep in mind a lot of these jobs are hard work, so picking fruit in the hot sun, carrying slabs of sods sweating in a factory for minimum wage, there's no way to tempt basement dwelling 25-year-olds into the labor force.  Going back to the Doom p*** nobody is crippled because we don't lose the work the fruit is still picked the factory is still humming the hotel rooms Sparkle we simply do it with American workers who would otherwise be idle.  

The leftover media will keep pumping out deportation fear p*** and the economy will be just fine.  Blue collars will just have jobs that actually pay.  Yes, this will boost costs, but in return houses get cheaper.  Empty houses lower prices.  You'll be able to go to the hospital or find a specialist without waiting in line behind and illegal who has never paid a dime into Medicaid.  And, of course, government spending plunges as millions of welfare cases go home while millions  more get off Mom and Dad's couch and go to work.  

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: That means DOGE and Trump are simply enacting the will of the Supreme Court, which the Rogue Biden Administration ignored.

The Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, is going straight for the jugular for the exhaust ports on the Death Star. Last week, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy co-wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal laying out their strategy for radically shrinking the federal government, the unelected occupying Army that Lords over our Fair Republic.  Beyond auditing the $500 billion in pure waste and fraud, there are two key parts.  First is two recent Supreme Court decisions that invalidated nearly the entire administrative state because it was not, in fact, passed by Congress, who is supposed to write all the laws not just the fun ones.  The second is the long-established precedent that the president can get rid of government workers who are not needed, a so-called "reduction in force."  Put them together and you get a beautiful three-step process: first, get rid of the unconstitutional regulation that renders the bureaucrats redundant so assess minimum Staffing needs and force reduce away then the leftover money reverts to Treasury to cancel out the leftover deficit, or dare we dream pay down debt if greedy Congress things can keep their paws to themselves.  I covered in a recent video how the Loper-Bright decision alone renders nearly every single Federal Regulation unconstitutional since just 50 of the tens of thousands of rules passed per year are actually authorized by Congress despite having the force of law.  The other 99% are unconstitutional.  That means DOGE and Trump are simply enacting the will of the Supreme Court, which the Rogue Biden Administration ignored.  So concretely how will this play out?  So DOGE will present Trump a list of regulations that overstep Congressional authority, meaning ones that involve major policy decisions without explicit Congressional authorization.  Trump can then instantly pause enforcement effectively nullifying the rule and then do a full review for formal rescission, getting rid of the rule, at which point if Congress really wants the rules, they are free to pass them in a law which they will not do for the same reason they never passed [it] in the first place.  So nullifying thousands of rules would Rocket Fuel the economy but it would also automatically render tens of thousands of bureaucrats redundant.  Trump being a good steward of the Treasury can then fire them, and given the federal workers earn six figures with gold-plated benefits twice the tax-paying plebs, that alone returns billions to taxpayers.  But that is just the beginning because the problem isn't the salaries; the problem is the regulations themselves and the control it gives.

So I've covered how regulations massively increase the cost of everything you buy.  To illustrate, Biden was proposing rules that would increase the cost of a washing machine by $200, a furnace by $500, an air conditioner by $1,000.  They've been piling this crap on for 40 years.  One study estimated regulations add $10,000 to the price of a car.  Gets worse.  A study by the National Association of Manufacturers estimated regulations add $30,000 to the cost of hiring a manufacturing worker.  They add $50,000 a year for small manufacturers.  So not only does that mean little guys cannot compete, it drives all of them to China.  All of that gone with the swipe of a pen.  

Historically waste and fraud efforts get bogged down in the details and end up cutting a few embarrassing programs and then they peter out.  This time looks very different.  Elon and Vivek have correctly identified the thermal exhaust ports of the Death Star and they are going in.

Sunday, November 10, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: Why yes, the CDC was planning concentration camps for the unvaxxed

Even with all that, worse was planned. On July 26, 2020, with the George Floyd riots having finally settled down, the CDC issued a plan for establishing nationwide quarantine camps.  --Jeffrey Tucker

from the Brownstone Institute

No matter how bad you think Covid policies were, they were intended to be worse. 

Consider the vaccine passports alone. Six cities were locked down to include only the vaccinated in public indoor places. They were New York City, Boston, Chicago, New Orleans, Washington, D.C., and Seattle. The plan was to enforce this with a vaccine passport. It broke. Once the news leaked that the shot didn’t stop infection or transmission, the planners lost public support and the scheme collapsed. 

It was undoubtedly planned to be permanent and nationwide if not worldwide. Instead, the scheme had to be dialed back. 

Features of the CDC’s edicts did incredible damage. It imposed the rent moratorium. It decreed the ridiculous “six feet of distance” and mask mandates. It forced Plexiglas as the interface for commercial transactions. It implied that mail-in balloting must be the norm, which probably flipped the election. It delayed the reopening as long as possible. It was sadistic. 

Even with all that, worse was planned. On July 26, 2020, with the George Floyd riots having finally settled down, the CDC issued a plan for establishing nationwide quarantine camps. People were to be isolated, given only food and some cleaning supplies. They would be banned from participating in any religious services. The plan included contingencies for preventing suicide. There were no provisions made for any legal appeals or even the right to legal counsel. 

The plan’s authors were unnamed but included 26 footnotes. It was completely official. The document was only removed on about March 26, 2023. During the entire intervening time, the plan survived on the CDC’s public site with little to no public notice or controversy. 

It was called “Interim Operational Considerations for Implementing the Shielding Approach to Prevent COVID-19 Infections in Humanitarian Settings.” 

Continue reading this chilling tale

Sunday, November 3, 2024

MURRAY ROTHBARD, 1992: New Jersey Health Department (a state where only 15% of the population is fluoridated) shows that the bone cancer rate among young males is no less than 6 times higher in fluoridated than in non-fluoridated areas

"Fluoridation Revisited," Murray Rothbard, 1992. 

The ALAR Scare, 1989.

from the Rothbard article, 

THE DRIVE FOR FLUORIDATION 
The official drive began abruptly just before the end of World War II, pushed by the U.S. Public Health Service, then in the Treasury Department. In 1945, the federal government selected two Michigan cities to conduct an official "15-year" study; one city, Grand Rapids, was fluoridated, a control city was left unfluoridated. (I am indebted to a recent revisionist article on fluoridation by the medical writer Joel Griffiths, in the left-wing muckraking journal Covert Action Information Bulletin: "Fluoride: Commie Plot or Capitalist Ploy?" [Fall 1992], pp. 26–28, 63–66.) Yet, before five years were up, the government killed its own "scientific study," by fluoridating the water in the second city in Michigan. Why? Under the excuse that its action was caused by "popular demand" for fluoridation; as we shall see, the "popular demand" was generated by the government and the Establishment itself. Indeed, as early as 1946, under the federal campaign, six American cities fluoridated their water, and 87 more joined the bandwagon by 1950. 

A key figure in the successful drive for fluoridation was Oscar R. Ewing, who was appointed by President Truman in 1947 as head of the Federal Security Agency, which encompassed the Public Health Service (PHS), and which later blossomed into our beloved Cabinet office of Health, Education, and Welfare. One reason for the left's backing of fluoridation – in addition to its being socialized medicine and mass medication, for them a good in itself – was that Ewing was a certified Truman Fair Dealer and leftist, and avowed proponent of socialized medicine, a high official in the then-powerful Americans for Democratic Action, the nation's central organization of "antiCommunist liberals" (read: Social Democrats or Mensheviks). Ewing mobilized not only the respectable left but also the Establishment Center. The powerful drive for compulsory fluoridation was spearheaded by the PHS, which soon mobilized the nation's establishment organizations of dentists and physicians. 

The mobilization, the national clamor for fluoridation, and the stamping of opponents with the right-wing kook image, was all generated by the public relations man hired by Oscar Ewing to direct the drive. For Ewing hired none other than Edward L. Bernays, the man with the dubious honor of being called the "father of public relations." Bernays, the nephew of Sigmund Freud, was called "The Original Spin Doctor" in an admiring article in the Washington Post on the occasion of the old manipulator's 100th birthday in late 1991. The fact that right-wing groups such as the John Birch Society correctly called fluoridation "creeping socialism" and blamed Soviet Communism as the source of the fluoridation campaign (no, not Bolsheviks, guys: but a Menshevik-State Capitalist alliance, see below) was used by the Bernaysians to discredit all the opposition. 

As a retrospective scientific article pointed out about the fluoridation movement, one of its widely distributed dossiers listed opponents of fluoridation "in alphabetical order reputable scientists, convicted felons, food faddists, scientific organizations, and the Ku Klux Klan." (Bette Hileman, "Fluoridation of Water," Chemical and Engineering News 66 [August 1, 1988], p. 37; quoted in Griffiths, p. 63) In his 1928 book Propaganda, Bernays laid bare the devices he would use: Speaking of the "mechanism which controls the public mind," which people like himself could manipulate, Bernays added that "Those who manipulate the unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country...our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of..." And the process of manipulating leaders of groups, "either with or without thei rconscious cooperation," will "automatically influence" the members of such groups. 

Fluoride causes bone fractures and cancer.  So look to fluoride as one of the causes of hip fractures in the elderly; it's not just a "sedentary lifestyle."

In addition to the bone cancer studies for the late 1980s, evidence is piling up that fluorides lead to bone fractures. In the past two years, no less than eight epidemiological studies have indicated the fluoridation has increased the rate of bone fractures in males and females of all ages. Indeed, since 1957, the bone fracture rate among male youth has increased sharply in the United States, and the U.S. hip fracture rate is now the highest in the world. In fact, a study in the traditionally profluoride Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), August 12, 1992, found that even "low levels of fluoride may increase the risk of hip fracture in the elderly." JAMA concluded that "it is now appropriate to revisit the issue of water fluoridation."  . . .

Despite the Young whitewash, doubts are piling up even within the federal government. James Huff, a director of the U.S. National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, concluded in 1992 that animals in the government's study developed cancer, especially bone cancer from being given fluoride – and there was nothing "equivocal" about his conclusion. 

Various scientists for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have turned to anti-fluoridation toxicologist William Marcus's warning that fluoride causes not just cancer, but also bone fractures, arthritis, and other disease. Marcus mentions, too, that an unreleased study by the New Jersey Health Department (a state where only 15 percent of the population is fluoridated) shows that the bone cancer rate among young males is no less than six times higher in fluoridated than in non-fluoridated areas. 

Ed.: See also, from 2005, Fluoride Follies by Donald W. Miller, MD. 

Thursday, September 26, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: How did Boomers get so rich?

Monday, September 23, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: Bankruptcies are up 61% for business — and up 15% for individuals — as millions of Americans unburden their life savings

Thursday, September 19, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: Many more suits are coming, perhaps tens of thousands given there are roughly half a million federal regulations almost none of which were actually authorized by Congress.

Some rare good news as left-wing mouthpiece, Politico, worries a recent Supreme Court decision will be "abused" to erase the "legacy of the Biden Harris nightmare."  The decision in question of course is June's Loper v. Bright case that gutted Chevron Deference, as it said that major regulations actually have to be passed by Congress, not by unelected Deep State bureaucrats.  This is because the Constitution very clearly states that Congress, who works for the people in theory, is supposed to make laws, not random bureaucrats who indisputably work for themselves.  

Source: Article I, Section I of the U.S. Constitution.

Loper Bright gutted a "cornerstone of progressive policymaking their ability to sneak laws in through the administrative state and running voters," which, fun fact, converts democracy into tyranny.  So what's upsetting Politico is that if Congress is supposed to make the rules, it turns out the vast majority of rules in existence at the moment were not made by Congress.  They just sort of spawned from the moist bowels of the deep state.  Politico is upset that "small government conservatives are suing to eliminate these apparently unconstitutional mandates." Worse for them, in a separate Supreme Court case Corner Post said that "there is no statute of limitations to challenging unconstitutional regulations," meaning they're all at risk even the old ones.  So which moist spawnings in particular are at risk?  Well, we're only two and a half months into Loper Bright and such things do move slowly, but we've already seen a Mississippi judge void transgender mandates; a Texas judge block an unconstitutional non-compete ban; and an Ohio appeals court block a rule regulating internet companies.  Another Texas judge struck down so-called "parole in place" that puts illegals on a path to citizenship.  They struck it down specifically because the rule "illegally bypassed Congress."  Others involve former mandates, small business mandates, manufacturing, abortion benefits, price controls, and, of course, the Biden-Harris student loan bailouts that would make blue collars pay for other people's gender degrees.  None of these were actually voted by Congress, meaning they are all gloriously unconstitutional.  In theory, Congress could turn around and actually pass the rules, replacing bureaucratic diktat with clean law.  In reality, almost no federal rules are actually popular; that's why Congress passes the buck in the first place.  So in all likelihood, the vast majority of mandates that are struck down will stay down.  Democrats know this and being the party of the administrative state they realize that even if cackles gets the White House they are losing the game.  The activist industrial complex is being dethroned. Some major suits have already been filed, one to dismantle a massive market surveillance system run by the SEC.  Other challenges a raft of "conservation measures on small farms that would drive them out of business."  Many more suits are coming, perhaps tens of thousands given there are roughly half a million federal regulations almost none of which were actually authorized by Congress.  As each mandate melts away, the economy gets stronger and the space for Liberty expands how you run your farm, how you run your business, earn a living, and how you educate your children.  It may not feel like it, but we are winning.  Thanks to the Constitution, things will get worse before they get better but we're turning the corner thanks to some very brave men 200 years ago and the greatest constitution in history that they left us.

Thursday, September 5, 2024

Thursday, August 22, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: How did American politics get so dumb? Easy: Government Schools.

Left-wing American intellectuals were fascinated by Prussia's indoctrination and imported it to the United States.  They were motivated not by peasant revolts but by the frustratingly small government ethos of American Catholics.  --Peter St Onge

It's a modern fetish that we are brilliant but our ancestors were idiots.  After all, they didn't have iPhones, the internet, or Kim Kardashian.  There's also an academic consensus, for what it's worth, called the Flynn Effect, the idea is that people do better on puzzles, so we must be smarter.  Of course, one wonders if puzzles translate into say understanding monetary policy or how welfare destroys families.  Thankfully, we have a real-world test, an actual political campaign.  Back when I was a professor, I ran every inaugural address through a Flesch Kincaid text analysis to measure the grade level.  The logic being that top speech writers know how to talk at the voter's level.  Doing that, it turns out that we are getting dumb breathtakingly fast.  In 1900, inaugurals were written at between 13th and 14th grades, in other words, modern college level.  Today, they are 8th grade for Obama, 9th grade for Trump, and 7th grade for Biden.  It gets worse further back we go.  Andrew Jackson's 1828 inaugural was written at 22nd-grade level, meaning strictly speaking two PhDs were the median voter in 1828.  Keep in mind, that Jackson was a populist man of the people.  Washington's inaugural is closer to 26th grade, so you'd need that third PhD.  Also, keep in mind, that almost nobody in 1828 or 1789 had a formal education.  

Jackson, for example, kicks off [his inaugural address] with "Undertaking the arduous duties that I've been appointed, . . ."

Washington starts with "Among the vicissitudes incident to life, . . . ." 

For Biden, it's "This is America's day."

So how did we get so dumb?  Easy: Public Schools.  The modern government school came from 1800s Prussia who had enough of worker riots in peasant revolts and resolved to indoctrinate kids into pro-regime obedience.  It worked like a charm, turning the once unruly Germans into a government-directed Army that went on to do terrible things.  Left-wing American intellectuals were fascinated by Prussia's indoctrination and imported it to the United States.  They were motivated not by peasant revolts but by the frustratingly small government ethos of American Catholics.  Progressives figure they couldn't progress figured they couldn't frog march American Catholics into government Utopia, but by gum they have their children.  These activists spread government schools to every state and got a major boost post-war when competence tests were declared discriminatory forcing companies to instead rely on formal education to discover Talent this launched the University from a fringe toy of the 1% into a $300,000 tax on anybody hoping for a white collar job.  Meanwhile, like all government programs, opportunists, i.e., teachers' unions, took over spending at this point $878 billion per year, dutifully peddling politics but neglecting the actual purpose of education, leaving American kids illiterate and innumerate.  In a video last year, I mentioned how fully 23 Baltimore schools have zero students proficient in math.  And in Detroit, 96% of students can't do math; 95% cannot even read, but by gum, they know their Demi genders.  Take people who can't name a state or don't know what a Supreme Court is, wash them with decades of left-wing propaganda, stick them in a voter booth, and here we are.

If we are to save our democracy we have to save our voters by replacing government schools with schools that actually teach instead of indoctrinate that could mean school choice,, it could mean vouchers it could be homeschooling co-ops, but until we fix it, things will keep getting worse.

Here's Rothbard's "Education: Free and Compulsory," 1979.

Monday, August 19, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: Pentagon seeking 100,000 workers to build submarines, is *importing Afghan refugees* to make them.

Thursday, August 8, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: Sweden is 30% poorer than West Virginia.


 

Tuesday, July 30, 2024

The share of young adults still living with their parents just hit the highest level since 1940.  Of course, 1940 they lived at home because they were saving themselves for a good husband.  Today, they live at home because rat infested one bedrooms cost 60 hours a week packing groceries.  It is getting worse fast.  At age 25, 14% of Silent Generations lived at home.  It was 15% for Boomers, 20% for Gen X, 27% for millennials, and now it is 30% of Gen Z.  Take it all together, young adults living at home went from 7% in 1970 to 17% today and rising fast at two and 1/2 times.  Note that in 1970, most young adult living at home could actually afford to move out, about 60%; today, that's 18%.  The other 82 are stuck it's interesting because adults forced to live with their parents is yet another data point in the most important economic question today are we still getting richer or have they finally killed the golden goose that delivered Rising income generation after generation since roundabout 1789 in other words did socialism finally break the camel's back on that metric apparently we've gone backwards since 1970.  So what happened in 1970?  Richard Nixon, namely the bipartisan Washington spending orgy "Guns and butter" they called it for the welfare superstate paired with the Vietnam War.   That orgy led to a devaluation of the dollar they spent too many into existence, which led to Nixon to "temporarily ending gold convertibility" on August 15th 1971 called "the Nixon shock," and yes, temporary in government does mean forever.  At that point, it was off to the inflation races and the debt races.  In recent videos, I've talked about how the inflation debt drove income inequality, pumping up the assets of the rich and leaving the plebs with nothing but inflation.  One consequence apparently is millions who cannot afford to live on their own until age 35, an age where their parents already had three kids in a house they owned while they cannot even afford to rent . . . in case we wonder why nobody's having kids.  Mish Shedlock dug into the numbers to see what's driving it.  For one, incomes have been falling so since 2000.  The median real income for young adults has dropped by 10%, while rent has soared since COVID-19 by 25%.  According to official numbers, the upshot is that just 18% of young adults living at home can actually afford to move out.  Even those with college degrees at this point are forced to live at home, so 1 in 8, which is double the rate, partly because of six figures.  But even without student loan payments, the percentage of college grads who can afford to rent their own place is at a record low.  In short, the Golden Goose is on life support whether or not you went to college.  

As bad as Central Banking is for the country, the inflation, the boom-bust recessions, the bank bailouts, it is catastrophic for the young who are fleeced to pump the bags of elderly millionaires.  A few months ago, I quoted Professor Scott Galloway's rant on how young voters are pissed off about being poor and are ready to burn it all down.  Unfortunately, very few of them connect the dots that their tormentors are in Washington and that they themselves have been useful idiots who made it happen. 

Thursday, July 25, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: Under Trudeau, incomes are West Virginia level, house prices are Los Angeles level, and Canadian taxes are halfway to the Soviet Union

Incomes are West Virginia level.  House prices are Los Angeles level, and Canadian taxes are halfway to the Soviet Union. 

Wednesday, July 3, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: So the Deep state is effectively passing 98.8% of our laws numbering roughly 11 per day

The Supreme Court just gutted the administrative state, the unelected deep-staters who have usurped the will of the people and left us with a rabid, mutant federal government no sane voter ever wanted.  Last Friday, the Supreme Court released a ruling Loper Bright vs. Raimondo that dethroned the so-called Chevron deference, a legal doctrine that for 40 years effectively forced judges to assume that government bureaucrats have whatever authority they want.  Since the 1970s, Chevron had become a keystone of the Administrative State cited by 70 subsequent Supreme Court decisions and over 17,000 rulings in lower courts.  Now it is gone.  The ruling itself involves a fishing boat that was forced to pay for regulator ride-alongs at a cost of $700 per day which would have bankrupted them.  So they sued, saying the agency did not have Congressional Authority; they just made up the rule.  The court agreed.  The larger issue is whether Congress makes law or do unelected bureaucrats make law?  This ruling says Congress makes laws, as it says in the Constitution.  The New York Times was positively horrified, mourning that the ruling "transfers power from the Executive branch to Congress."  In other words, it transfers powers from the unelected bureaucrats to the elected politicians, who actually have to answer to voters.  This matters because Federal bureaucrats currently spawn roughly 4,000 rules per year, which all have the force of law, compared to 50 actual substantive laws passed by Congress every year.  So the Deep state is effectively passing 98.8% of our laws numbering roughly 11 per day.  This is partly because the vast majority of rules are unpopular and would never be able to pass Congress.  So try running for election banning gas stoves or raising the gasoline tax, and see how far you get.  It's much easier to pass the buck to some bureaucratic Rando who cannot get fired.  The Loper ruling will lead to hundreds or possibly thousands of challenges to rules that were made without Congressional authority which is roughly all of the rules.  These range from environmental mandates and diversity to OSHA and the SEC, and they include the more totalitarian parts of the deep state.  For example, the COVID era tyranny never could have happened without Chevron deference.  No 6 ft distancing, no bans on going to church, no vax mandates, leaving your loved ones to die alone, none of those would ever have been passed by Congress.  All are now illegal.  Same for self-defense and the Second Amendment, where Rogue bureaucrats have banned bump stocks or directed banks to effectively close down gun shops again without Congressional authority.  And, of course, the border where Congress has famously passed nothing the entire open borders, human trafficking industrial complex is made of rules the administrative state made up.  In short, Loper reins in the rogue bureaucrats, who are currently running our country into the ground.  We've already seen fruits.  Two weeks ago, the Supremes struck the ban on bump stocks, and last week saw a separate case where the Supremes ruled the SEC cannot use its own in-house tribunal to impose fines which seems obvious given courts are supposed to be impartial but that was Chevron deference for you.  As for the economy, reining in the totalitarian administrative state means less crony regulation, less more jobs, more growth hiring, incomes, and less inflation.  It will take time for Loper to clear out the overgrowth clogging our economy, but the healing has begun. 

Thursday, June 27, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: [2nd mortgages] effectively turns a house into a credit card; in fact, one that is government-subsidized by Freddie Mac

New home sales are tumbling yet home prices just hit a fresh all-time record, pretty much on brand for this miracle economy of ours where nothing is selling but it's all really expensive.  The numbers come from the National Association of Realtors who report that the median existing home price in May was a record $419,000, up nearly 6% from last year.  Meanwhile, sales of existing homes plunged to just 4.1 million; that's down 6% on the quarter and down 40% since Joe Biden took office.  What's crashing the number of sales, of course, is interest rates, which at 7.5% are putting houses out of reach you need to make six figures to qualify for a starter home and your mortgage will be half your income.  What makes this interesting is that crashing sales were supposed to bring prices back to earth after the pandemic bubble.  They have not for the simple reason that rates went up so fast that it's locked people in.  They can't afford a replacement house; after all, maybe your condo went up 40%, but that starter house also went up 40%.  So even with the gains you cannot afford to upgrade at 7.5% mortgage unless you are retiring and moving to Costa Rica.  So I mentioned recent videos, this is all done a number on the young and working class.  It means pretty much the only buyers are people who need to: they got a job at a new city, or maybe they lost their job and are moving down to renting.  For everybody else, young families, empty nesters, they are locked in. 

1:33. Meanwhile, of course, inflation keeps marching up driving up house prices.  It's a roughly centuries-long trend that houses move up almost in lockstep with inflation.  That means for all those people waiting for the pandemic housing bubble to burst, it may never burst.  Inflation will just push the prices up to meet it.  In fact, house prices could take another jump, because ZeroHedge reports that government-owned mortgage bundler Freddie Mac, which already owes roughly three trillion dollars worth of mortgages, just applied to deal in second mortgages.  Now, a second mortgage is when you take a fresh loan out to take money out of your house.  The problem is that this effectively turns a house into a credit card; in fact, one that is government-subsidized by Freddie Mac.  That does two things: that drives house prices even higher because a credit card is worth more than frozen equity; worse, it encourages people to drain every last dime out of their house.  That leaves them right on the edge of default when a recession or just a layoff does hit them.  We saw that in 2008 when millions of owners bailed on their houses because they owed more than it was worth.  With subsidized second mortgages, if you are smart you should owe more than your house is worth; it's a cheap loan.  

2:47. For 50 years, Washington has done everything possible to pump up house prices as a kind of upper-middle-class welfare scheme that buys votes, pays the affluent, but fleeces the have-nots.  Now we've got a world of rich boomers stepping over the young, who are not only giving up on starting a family, they're losing faith in the entire system, doom spending their way to oblivion.  In terms of what is next, if you own a house here comes another jackpot; if not, it is time to start driving for Uber.  

Read the whole article with charts and all the gory details at profstonge.com

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: one study by Cambridge University found that regulations have added between $6,000 and $7,000 to the cost of a car and have wiped out cheaper models altogether.

A speeding freight train of regulations is coming that will gut small businesses while climate mandates make pretty much everything that plugs in suck.  A new study by the Job Creators Network estimates that 1.2 trillion dollars in new regulations are about to hit Americans courtesy of Joe Biden; that would be on top of the estimated 1.9 trillion dollars we already lose to regulations.  Per household, that comes to $10,000 in new regulations on top of the $15,000 in regulations we already pay every year.  Put differently, 20 cents on the dollar you earn got snagged by regulatory costs; you never saw it.  Taxes are on top of that.  The new rules run the gamut from emissions to staffing and diversity to reporting requirements for global warming.  There are manufacturing restrictions on pretty much everything in your house.  So dishwashers, water heaters, ceiling fans, light bulbs, gas stoves, washing machines, and, of course, air conditioners.  One study by the Alliance for Consumers estimates the new rules will increase the cost of a washing machine by $200, a furnace by $500, and the cost of refilling your air conditioner by over $1,000; they could push some products, like gas stoves, out of existence altogether.  Now all of that is on top of existing regulations that already pushed all these things up by thousands.  For example, one study by Cambridge University found that regulations have added between $6,000 and $7,000 to the cost of a car and have wiped out cheaper models altogether.  Of course, none of that is a problem for the 1%.  They will still drive Bentleys and crank the heat up in winter, and it's a positive bonanza for the huge companies whose donations bought all of those lovely regulations.  As for the rest of us, wear another sweater and take the bus.  Beyond the crap products, this flood of regulations is driving tens of thousands of factories and businesses overseas.  To illustrate, the National Association of Manufacturers estimates that it currently costs $30,000 in Regulatory Compliance alone for every manufacturing worker.  For small manufacturers, the mom-and-pop, that actually comes to $50,000 in regulatory costs.  They can't spread it out over as many workers, so that is literally more than the salary and that goes to Regulatory Compliance alone.  Upcoming rules are targeting precisely these small businesses, most notoriously on climate disclosure, climate change procurement, basically locking small companies out of selling to the federal government, and a  "transparency rule on climate that would hit 11 million small firms with nearly 100 billion dollars in fresh costs."  Many of course will just give up and close shop.  The rules are part of 5,300 rules imposed since Obama.  Trump had briefly reversed the tide.  Remember he took out two regulations for every new one but Joe Biden's handlers have doubled down even out doing the famously destructive Obama in terms of job-crushing regulations that make everything you buy suck.  There is a rate of hope in an upcoming Supreme Court decision, called Loper V Raimondo, brought by a fishing boat that was forced to pay $700 a day for regulator ride-alongs.  If the decision comes in favor of the Fishers, it could dramatically rein in the federal rule Leviathan, obliging major rules to actually go through Congress instead of auto-spawning in the Deep State.  If not, the regulatory strangle will continue trillion by trillion until your jobs in China you furnished are just for show and you need a mortgage to buy a car made of tin cans.

Monday, June 17, 2024