PETER ST ONGE: [shoplifting craze] can set off a so-called Urban Doom Loop, where first residents with jobs flee, then tax revenue plunges, and then the city cannot afford police or even street cleaning

Study: Shoplifting has soared 93% since pre-pandemic.

Which shouldn’t be a surprise unless you’re a journalist.

Soft-on-crime policies turned shoplifting into an entire industry. And millions of low-skill migrants give them plenty of recruits. pic.twitter.com/fERWFIRVGf

— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) January 2, 2025

A new study says shoplifting has soared 93% compared to pre-COVID even as left-wing media swears up and down that locked-up toothbrushes at CVS are figments of your imagination.  The numbers come from a new study by the National Retail Federation who surveyed 164 retail brands making up $1.5 trillion in sales on what the industry calls shrinkage, and the rest of us call shoplifting, boosting jack-packing five-finger discounts.  

What's driving it of course is the effective legalization of shoplifting in blue cities and states including California and New York.  To give a flavor, before Old Navy exited its San Francisco hometown, one store manager said he was getting hit 14 times a day.  Indeed, in California you got a ticket up to $950 stolen shoplifters would literally keep a running tally.  In Philly, you'd also catch a fine albeit at a less generous $150.  In New York City bail reform meant you walk free up to $1,000 stolen.  

The problem is these policies have generated a nationwide industry of stolen goods.  Unlike the old days where junkies would sell for pennies on the dollar, these organized gangs ship right back into the supply chain which makes it all much more profitable.  Throw in millions of unskilled migrants who face deportation instead of jail time and revolving door deportation at that, and you've got the supply and the demand.  This has taken American shoplifting to a whole other level.  In California, they are boosting entire trains.  New York has migrant shoplifting gangs with dozens of individuals.  One gang in California had 117 shoplifters which would make it a medium-sized business, according to the SBA.  So as the profits go up, the gangs have gotten more violent.  According to that Retail Federation study, 91% of retailers say that shoplifters are more violent and aggressive compared to pre-pandemic.  73% say they're getting more violent in the past year alone.  

Now, in theory we have an FBI to go after Interstate organized crime.  Of course, in reality, the FBI does not have time for organized crime or Jeffrey Epstein or P Diddy for that matter, because they are busy chasing down grandmothers for protesting on January 6th.

Shoplifting raises prices because paying customers have to absorb the theft, but more important it puts retailers out of business.  In San Francisco, Portland, or Chicago entire zones are now empty of commercial.  At some point, people wonder why they are paying $5,000 a month to live in a board-up canyon infested with junkies.  This can set off a so-called Urban Doom Loop, where first residents with jobs flee, then tax revenue plunges, and then the city cannot afford police or even street cleaning.  You end up like Detroit or Baltimore. 

Now thankfully help is on the way, partly because even the Bluest voters have finally had enough.  So a recent California referendum re-criminalized shoplifting but most important because Trump actually intends to deport the hundreds of thousands of criminal migrants making up the gangs.  Perhaps even New Yorkers can someday buy a toothbrush that is not locked in a cage.