Monday, September 23, 2024

PETER ST ONGE: Bankruptcies are up 61% for business — and up 15% for individuals — as millions of Americans unburden their life savings

Posted by at No comments:
Labels: , ,

Growing Fruit in a Greenhouse out on the Plains

Posted by at No comments:
Labels: ,

OWEN BENJAMIN: Getting thru the stages of grief when you realize how much of the world is a lie.

Posted by at No comments:

Sunday, September 22, 2024


3:30. I watched how we closed.   Remember Friday was a quad witching there were 4.5 trillion dollars worth of options expiring on that Friday.  So markets weren't going to do much on Friday after the moves on Wednesday and Thursday I was not expecting huge moves on Friday it being quad witching day because at some point that's just the way things operate, I remind you that our markets are not free I'm also going to remind you that our markets have power and maybe have a little bit more power than I thought they do that's fair but here's the gig I'm going to reiterate what I said on Wednesday trying to do it a little bit more than I did that my arguments 

4:18. My argument for Powell cutting 25 basis points versus 50 was in order for him to continue to keep the pressure on the offshore dollar markets.  Daniel di Martino Booth over the course of the last couple of days a few of you found some tweets of her on Slack and posted them on Slack about how she's defending Powell.  And she's it defending Powell exactly the way I am but slightly differently . . . which is to say this Powell is in an impossible situation.  He's got a domestic economy that is clearly rolling over, that he clearly has to deal with and clearly has to lighten the load in terms of the credit stretch that he has induced and he has done this for exactly the reason he said he was in order to push the offshore dollar market into tight liquidity situation. But at the end of the day, he was always going to bow to Wall Street if Wall Street got into any kind of trouble.  Why?  Because at the end of the day, that's who Powell works for.  He doesn't work for Janet Yellen.  He doesn't work for Barack Obama. Zero Hedge is f****** wrong about him cucking out for political purposes, trying to get, Harris elected that's b*******.  The stock markets are going to roll over, are likely going to roll over in the next 4 to 6 weeks when everybody realizes just what the FED finally just did.  

6:00. Vince and I chatted yesterday afternoon on the phone, texting me with ideas.  You're absolutely right.  Basically, he came to my conclusion from a completely different angle about Powell, so my original argument was "Powell, please, cut 25 basis points in order to keep the pressure on the offshore dollar markets.  You signaled to the market that you're not happy with the way things are.  25 basis points now versus October 31st won't matter.  But he cut 50bps anyway.  But remember what I said multiple times before the decision, if Powell cuts 50, I said if Powell cuts 50, it's because things are worse than even we perceive going into the decision.  I said my odds are 70- 27-3.  70% he goes 25 basis points; 27% he goes 50 basis points, and 3% he goes 75 basis points.  That's what I said I never really entertained him not cutting rates or raising rates or anything else.  

7:30. Where I was wrong was in thinking that we already didn't have a blow-off top and bond prices you understand that yields have been falling on the long end we know between yelling in the guard in the market forces and pushing the long end of the yield curve down push it over 100 basis points or over a percentage point in the last few months and I figured if he cuts 50 will probably get another 25 basis or or 30 basis point move up that will be the blow off top and then it will roll over and then we'll get the bear steeper trade but in that period of time it may take a couple of months for that to happen.
Posted by at No comments:

SCOTT RITTER: You're letting Ukraine determine the fate of humanity? You're letting Zelensky determine the fate of humanity?

3:17. A signal that could be sent for instance is for Germany to tell the United States hell no to the missiles they want to deploy in 2026.  Because if we are fortunate enough to live between now and then those missiles will get you killed.  How about Germany it taking the lead to have Europe come up with a new pro-Arms Control agenda?  How about Germany taking the lead to bring an end to this Ukrainian conflict, to get Zelensky out of power so that he doesn't get to threaten all of our lives.  You almost died this weekend.  I don't know what you were doing this weekend, but it almost didn't happen.  If you didn't die, understand this, you will have wished you had died, because the consequences of surviving a post-nuclear war reality is worse than death.  That's my message to the German people.  That's my message to the people of Europe.  That's my message to my fellow Americans.  What are we going to do about this?  Stop the stupid discussions about missiles long-range strikes.  Stop a nuclear war it is the most existential issue of our time and the time is right now.  You almost died this weekend.  What are you going to do about it?  

5:15. Russia cannot be defeated militarily but the real question is why do you want to defeat Russia militarily?  I mean does it matter do you care that Russia can or cannot be defeated militarily?  The real question is why would you even consider defeating Russia militarily Russia doesn't pose a threat to you listen to what the reasoning was behind Vladimir Putin's decision to enlarge the Russian military because the threats against Russia have increased. The threats.  That's you, Germany, and your stupidity.  Your stupidity.  You think NATO can defeat Russia.  You've embraced an American policy that speaks of the strategic defeat of Russia using Ukraine as a proxy?  How freaking dumb can you be?  You're the dumbest people on the planet after the rest of Europe and the United States.  Sort of a toss-up.  You know, we're all stupid because we think we can defeat Russia.  We can't. Now understand this. Russia can't defeat us even with this military that they have.  It's not big enough to defeat NATO.  The Russian military is designed to do two things: win the conflict in Ukraine, and secure Russia's borders against external threats.  That's it.  It is not an offensive military machine.  So, again, the question I have to ask people is to stop talking about Russia, saying that Russia created the conditions that make sure that it can't be defeated.  Why do yo. want to defeat Russia?  Why is that an option on the table?  It shouldn't be.  From Germany's perspective you're the last country in the world that should ever articulate any notion of trying to defeat Russia you don't have a right to defeat Russia.  You don't have the right to be part of an alliance whose goals and objectives are to defeat Russia.  You lost that right in 1945.  You will never regain that right.  27 million dead Soviets assure the reality that you have no rights when it comes to talking about Russia, the military and National Defense Rush is not going to attack you Russia is no threat to you Russia actually wanted to be a partner with you in peace Russia sold you the cheapest damn energy you're ever going to get maybe you're even waking up to that fact Olaf Scholz two years too late is starting to talk about a serious investigation because he's paying a political price for this

Posted by at No comments:
Labels: , , ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)