3:30. I watched how we closed.   Remember Friday was a quad witching there were 4.5 trillion dollars worth of options expiring on that Friday.  So markets weren't going to do much on Friday after the moves on Wednesday and Thursday I was not expecting huge moves on Friday it being quad witching day because at some point that's just the way things operate, I remind you that our markets are not free I'm also going to remind you that our markets have power and maybe have a little bit more power than I thought they do that's fair but here's the gig I'm going to reiterate what I said on Wednesday trying to do it a little bit more than I did that my arguments 

4:18. My argument for Powell cutting 25 basis points versus 50 was in order for him to continue to keep the pressure on the offshore dollar markets.  Daniel di Martino Booth over the course of the last couple of days a few of you found some tweets of her on Slack and posted them on Slack about how she's defending Powell.  And she's it defending Powell exactly the way I am but slightly differently . . . which is to say this Powell is in an impossible situation.  He's got a domestic economy that is clearly rolling over, that he clearly has to deal with and clearly has to lighten the load in terms of the credit stretch that he has induced and he has done this for exactly the reason he said he was in order to push the offshore dollar market into tight liquidity situation. But at the end of the day, he was always going to bow to Wall Street if Wall Street got into any kind of trouble.  Why?  Because at the end of the day, that's who Powell works for.  He doesn't work for Janet Yellen.  He doesn't work for Barack Obama. Zero Hedge is f****** wrong about him cucking out for political purposes, trying to get, Harris elected that's b*******.  The stock markets are going to roll over, are likely going to roll over in the next 4 to 6 weeks when everybody realizes just what the FED finally just did.  

6:00. Vince and I chatted yesterday afternoon on the phone, texting me with ideas.  You're absolutely right.  Basically, he came to my conclusion from a completely different angle about Powell, so my original argument was "Powell, please, cut 25 basis points in order to keep the pressure on the offshore dollar markets.  You signaled to the market that you're not happy with the way things are.  25 basis points now versus October 31st won't matter.  But he cut 50bps anyway.  But remember what I said multiple times before the decision, if Powell cuts 50, I said if Powell cuts 50, it's because things are worse than even we perceive going into the decision.  I said my odds are 70- 27-3.  70% he goes 25 basis points; 27% he goes 50 basis points, and 3% he goes 75 basis points.  That's what I said I never really entertained him not cutting rates or raising rates or anything else.  

7:30. Where I was wrong was in thinking that we already didn't have a blow-off top and bond prices you understand that yields have been falling on the long end we know between yelling in the guard in the market forces and pushing the long end of the yield curve down push it over 100 basis points or over a percentage point in the last few months and I figured if he cuts 50 will probably get another 25 basis or or 30 basis point move up that will be the blow off top and then it will roll over and then we'll get the bear steeper trade but in that period of time it may take a couple of months for that to happen.