Market Analyst Tom Luongo says Trump isn't fighting Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz; he's using the Strait to break Europe's ability to finance the Ukraine war.
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) July 10, 2026
Most people see Iran and Ukraine as two separate conflicts, but Tom thinks they're the same war being fought on… pic.twitter.com/GUPWWIvRef
Amazing.
Trump posted that Iran has asked him to continue the talks; he agreed to do so, but then he says the ceasefire is over. That comes after a few days of bombing where the US two days of the US bombing Iran heaviest bombing since the ceasefire and then a third day no one knows most likely Bahrain in Kuwait. And then I ran retaliating against Bahrain and Kuwait, Jordan, and one strike against Qatar, looks like a warning strike. And then the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapse. According to Kepler since the fighting began, only 22, so since yesterday only 22 ships have gone through. Just one vessel in the Armani Channel and all the others on the Iranian side, which was much less than the 40 to 50 they were going through in recent weeks since the ceasefire. That's the current reality. All of this is happening as military equipment is moving out of the region some military assets.
1:32. What is your general analysis in state of affairs where do you think this is headed some people think the war is over and these are just conflicting skirmishes others think that because of Lebanon or or moose or the US has an objective that has not been achieved of controlling straight of Hormuz was causing regime change that they will continue the war until that objective is achieved.
2:04. Sure I'm going to take a third way on this because of course this is kind of what I do we just say that this word really is Iran has never really been a target of this war cuz I don't really see Iran, the same way I never saw Ukraine or Lebanon or even Israel and others as Sovereign Nations I see them, I hate to use the word, satrap, honestly, but they are play things of vaster powers. In Ukraine's case, it's NATO, the European Union, and previous US Administrations. In Iran what we've learned over the last couple of years especially since Trump has come back to office is that they were really just called the Gulf States it was kind of like in bed with that same kind of architecture, what you would call City of London, or however you want to phrase it. So to me, I'm looking at Trump in a much bigger strategic picture than Iran itself. Iran looks to me like a poke, like you poke the snake in the heart of their nest, and then see what reaction. And the reaction we've gotten is very similar to the same reaction we got with Ukraine. For example, when Putin had to move into Ukraine in 2022. Or every time Trump tries to do something domestically that crosses a big red line and then you see a big abreaction from either domestic policy, something like the LA Riots. Last year he poked the NGOs and the cartels and that created race riots and a response. So, all these things are to me kind of the same thing. It's just that each time he's done this it carries bigger and bigger stakes. He started with the laundromat in LA, and then he moves to trying to solve the war in Ukraine and then he takes out Maduro in Venezuela. Again poking a part of that Network that exists I believe now that Iran is the final chapter of that. Because Iran, in my way of thinking, is a lynchpin to solving Ukraine, to solving Israel, to solving Turkey, to solving all these things, because there are old relationships all the way across the board with European, Old Colonial powers of Europe, some of whom are British, some who are French; their interests are everywhere, Dutch, all of it. And at the end of the day the big question is, is Trump trying to rewire the world's global trade away from these geographical choke point that the Strait of Hormuz represents, that the Straits of Florida vis-a-vis Cuba represents, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore represent, that Gibraltar, and all the others. When you take a step back and you get away from the the microcosmith you get a different strategic picture because who is really in the crosshairs here how do you solve Ukraine my friend Joaquin Flores made the point the other day with Crypto Rich's that Trump continues to put pressure on oil flows out of Hormuz makes it very difficult for the warmongers in NATO and the EU to continue the war . . . continue supplying Ukraine to fight Russia. So solving Iran in many ways is solving Ukraine, Mario and you're getting the open ended Tom Luongo answer.
5:51. At the end of the day the Europeans have that enough energy diesel fuel gasoline is that and everything else now we're getting just down to the Raw military religion How do they continue to resupply Ukrainian front with men Logistics if they can't afford to pay for if they can't afford to pay for oil?
