SAMA HOOLE:

1977: Senator George McGovern chairs the Senate Select Committee on Nutrition and Human Needs. They're investigating dietary causes of chronic disease. The political pressure for action is immense.

The committee hears testimony from multiple researchers. The testimony is… pic.twitter.com/cuJeV7v2lp

— Sama Hoole (@SamaHoole) February 8, 2026

1977: Senator George McGovern, 1922-2012, chairs the Senate Select Committee on Nutrition and Human Needs. They're investigating dietary causes of chronic disease. The political pressure for action is immense. The committee hears testimony from multiple researchers. The testimony is divided. Some support dietary fat restriction. Others say the evidence is insufficient for population-wide advice. Dr. Pete Ahrens, one of the era's leading lipid researchers, explicitly warns against premature guidelines. Ahrens testifies: "This is a gamble. We are not certain about the effects of dietary change. We should wait for better evidence before making recommendations that will affect the entire population." The committee ignores him. They feel political pressure to do something. Heart disease is killing thousands. The public demands answers. Saying "we need more research" isn't politically viable. McGovern later admits in interviews that they knew the science was uncertain but felt compelled to act. In 1977, they publish "Dietary Goals for the United States" recommending Americans reduce saturated fat, increase carbohydrates, and replace animal fats with vegetable oils. This is the first time the U.S. government issues dietary advice to the entire population. There's no precedent. No framework for how to proceed. They're making it up as they go. The American Medical Association opposes the guidelines. They issue a statement saying the evidence doesn't support population-wide dietary change. The AMA argues for individualized advice rather than universal recommendations. Food industry lobbying intensifies. Beef producers oppose fat restriction. Dairy farmers fight against recommendations to limit butter and whole milk. Grain producers support increased carbohydrate consumption. Everyone sees how this affects their markets. The final guidelines reflect political compromise more than scientific consensus. They're softened slightly compared to drafts to appease meat and dairy lobbies. But the core message remains: eat less fat, more carbs. These guidelines become institutional policy. USDA adopts them. The American Heart Association endorses them. Medical schools begin teaching them. Within five years, they're established dogma. The gamble Ahrens warned about was never framed as a gamble to the public. Guidelines were presented as settled science. Nobody mentioned uncertainty. Nobody disclosed the divided expert opinion. Nobody admitted this was experimental policy affecting 200 million Americans. By the 1980s-90s, the outcomes are visible. Obesity rises. Diabetes increases. Heart disease rates don't improve. The guidelines clearly aren't working as predicted. But rather than revisit the original gamble, committees double down. If outcomes are bad, obviously people aren't following advice closely enough. The solution is more stringent fat restriction and louder public health messaging. McGovern's retrospective acknowledgment that they gambled is telling. He knew at the time that the science was uncertain. He chose to issue guidelines anyway because political circumstances demanded it. This established a precedent: nutritional guidelines could be based on incomplete evidence if political pressure was sufficient. Later committees would follow this model. Advice would be issued before evidence was definitive. Course correction would be avoided to preserve institutional credibility. The McGovern guidelines weren't the careful result of overwhelming scientific evidence. They were a political response to public anxiety, shaped by industry lobbying, issued despite scientific uncertainty, and never revised despite failing outcomes.

Your dietary guidelines began as an admitted gamble by politicians who felt pressured to do something even when scientists said the evidence was insufficient. The gamble failed. Nobody acknowledged it. And you're still following advice from 1977.