Cutting Through the Chaos - Where Are We? | Tom Luongo @TFL1728 #Geopolitics https://t.co/7TFKdPR320

— Mel K Show (@MelKShow) April 18, 2024

Zoltan Pozsar is going to turn out to be right about everything about Bretton Woods and the golden oil market, and treasury bonds, money in commodity-based markets, and money, it's having all sorts of effects you politically that's the 40,000 ft level overview.   

I see a lot of people talking about are Bond markets they seem to be . . . .  What's happening to the bond market?

The big question here is that we live in a central bank-dominated world.  We've now reached a moment in time where fed policy is the singularity that everybody has to go focus intensely on and we're going to go through that Singularity and come out the other side and what's that going to look like and a lot of people from my side of the board.    

The bad guys are easy: they want low interest rates and to do that they really want to keep us enmeshed in low ninterest rate environment so that when the system crashes and they take us to war, they will be able to default on all their debt and issue a new system that they'll still control.  The other side of that of course is the people who I think at the Federal Reserve and the New York banking system are like yeah that's nice but we are not down with being sacrificed on that altar so that you can win and I am specifically talking here about the city of London Frankfort Brussels that complex at the same time then you have the Russians and the Chinese and the Eurasian powers now known as the bricks block saying guys it's no longer your money our problem it's now our Commodities your problem this is going back to Zoltan Pozsar's note when he was with Credit Suisse to 2 years ago talking about that and Bretton Woods 3 and all these things so I want to highlight what he talked about 2 years ago heavy duty and all the heavy duty commentators on this myself and Solange all went crazy ZeroHedge and the rest of them talking about thinking about what Posner was writing about it then and we talked about it over time I've done on my podcast but it's right here right now Russia Ukraine the EU is pushed for war bonds the Israel Iran conflict all of this stuff comes down to the commodity producers of the world saying we are no longer going to be price takers of your s***** money.

4:13.  What that means is that when you start thinking about it in terms of the yield on sovereign debt, what it's doing is effectively exposing the crack of the old system now that system was great when we were globalizing now that we are globalizing shipping is no longer global shipping of commodities of oil, of goods from China, and everything else is no longer safe.  The Houthis are winning in the Red Sea.  And so that part of the system is what's under attack and their effect as Libertarians like to put it, is "striking the root" and saying, "Oh, by the way, this is reality and all the rest of it was great when we were at peace.  We're not at peace anymore.  Now we are at war.  And when we're at war, shit stops moving around the world.  Stuff still moves but it doesn't move with the same frictionless impetus that it had before.  Now that the financialization of these markets through the issuance of sovereign debt and more currency to keep everything liquid now carries a risk premium that hasn't been quantified before yet, hasn't been hedged, hasn't been dealt with before, so now the risk premium has to rise, i.e., interest rates have to rise.  I think the Federal Reserve understands this.  I think the BoJ over in Japan understands this.  I think the Russians explicitly understand this.  I think the Chinese are like  "Hey, let's make a deal," but nobody wants to make a deal because everybody in the West likes to be able to use that old system to determine commodity prices. That's why Janet Yellen keeps talking about putting a price cap on oil, and it doesn't work.  It's why we keep sanctioning Russia; now this week we are saying no more Russian copper, aluminum, and nickel can float through the London Metal Exchange, LME, or the Chicago Metals Exchange.  Why the CMA?  So it's not going to work because at the end of the day, we have money, they have commodities, and you're going to pay now some large amount of Premium to get that.

6:38. and we are the price makers and you are the price takers and it's always been the other way around we've always lived under the situation where we're the commodity producers and they're the price takers and we were the price makers under normally functioning markets that's the way it should be because the consumer is sovereign the consumer in this respect now is on the other side of it saying we need to commodities to live our lives but the commodity producers are saying this deal f****** sucks and we're not taking it anymore.  So take your money and shove it, invoking Johnny Paycheck, 1977.  We are not doing this anymore.  

8:10. What's your take on the 702 Surveillance Act?  

8:25. I look at it in terms of timing.  We've got this Ukraine bill that they are desperate to pass through.  You got Ukraine losing badly.  You've got all of project Europe trying to get the United States to fight World War 3 like we fought World War I and World War II on their behalf and the fights that they picked for the Russians, picked a fight with the Russians through the Germans. I look . . . . we get this FISA thing and to me, it just felt like chum.  I hate to be cynical about it, but, hey, let's throw this thing out there right now because the two most hated men in America are Jerome Powell, because he won't cut interest rates, and Mike Johnson, because he's a speaker with a one-seat majority who's trying to hold back a tidal wave of crap being thrown at him.  So I looked at the FISA thing and asked myself, " Why is everybody getting so upset about this?" like did you really think in 2024 America with Obama in charge and Davos still running around that we would give up the FISA Court at this moment in time?  No.  As Mad Max put it in Fury Road, "That's bait, that is."

That was created to make sure that Johnson was the guy who had to cast the deciding vote because there were 12 Not-presences so that we can activate Marjorie Taylor Green, who I don't trust as far as I can fucking throw her.  Or any of these other people who are . . . as far as I'm concerned I'm at the point now where Marjorie Taylor Green is AOC for MAGA-tards.  That's the way I see her straight from Central Casting a Georgia GOP that is as compromise as any state party that you could possibly imagine all run by old Guard Republicans so I look at this and I say to myself a useful idiot at the end of the day the goal here is to destroy Mike Johnson the goal here is to get rid of his speakership before the recess in August when they all leave Congress to go campaign for the fall you've got this very narrow window between April and August to get a whole bunch of stuff through to ensure that if Donald Trump does win the election and there's a Red Wave in the fall that we leave him with enough poison pills that it destroys his presidency the second time around the way they destroyed it the first time around this is nothing new we've lived through this before this happened before it'll happen again the difference is we are now at five and a half percent interest rates with the Federal Reserve and a Wall Street that has looked at all of this and said you people are crazy we are not doing this.

1138.