Tuesday, October 14, 2025

TOM LUONGO: a sea change in the attitudes on Wall Street

This represents a sea change in the attitudes on Wall St., which has done nothing but 'invest' in wealth extraction through real estate for decades. My call that this timeline we're on started with Wall St. and the Fed through Jerome Powell's 'stealth tightening' through the "Five Basis Points that Changed the World" is looking more and more correct by the day. To summarize that argument for the newcomers:

Powell began the post-COVID tightening cycle by raising the Reverse Repo Payout rate in June 2021 to domestic banks 0.05% or 5bps above the Fed Funds Rate... this drained $2+ trillion from global dollar markets in less than 3 months.
The RRP facility balance went from $450 billion in June 2021 to $2.5+ trillion by Q4. Setting the stage for "Biden" to fight his renomination into May of 2022.
Powell's refusal to be pressured out of office had the backing of someone more powerful than the Biden Junta, Wall St. He stayed, the FOMC extended his term as Chair indefinitely and eventually "Biden" caved and put Powell up for reconfirmation, which he won in the Senate 80-20.
SOFR began replacing LIBOR as the pricing mechanism for global dollars in January 2022. By June 2023, the COMEX's Eurodollar Futures Contract ceased trading, replaced by the 3-month SOFR Futures contract.
Powell then began his historic tightening cycle in March and it accelerated into the fall, forcing the ECB into YCC by July... known as the TPI - Transmission Protection Instrument.
The money in the RRP made its way into domestic money markets, which morons (i.e @zerohedge) called QE. *SMFH*

This kept the money markets liquefied domestically, supported the t-bill market, which supported credit markets, while the global price of dollars choked off the offshore leverage, slowing global money velocity.
This, in turn, spurred on 'dedollarization' which was the intended goal, to finally end Triffin's Dilemma, though, again morons continue to think this is somehow bad and that BRICS will dominate.
Did I say morons? I'm sorry, that's unfair, I meant SHILLS.
During all of this the Europeans committed ritualistic sacrifice of the Euro by going to war against Russia and destroying any future where the Euro would replace the dollar as the pricing currency for oil and gas, i.e. petroeuro.
The USD rose in trade settlement market share via SWIFT, the Euro's share collapsed and the EU is now looking at having to default on tens of trillions of debt... but somehow the US is the one on the verge of default in the minds of these same "SHILLS?"
Good luck with that, argument folks.
Now that that money is drained (and anymore inflation from it is dead and gone) Powell can remake Fed policy by ending the 2% inflation mandate and focus on the labor markets as his barometer for monetary policy.
Now he can begin the easing cycle Trump so desperately needs. And Powell will give it to him, just not as fast as Trump says he would like. 
TL;DR -- Wall St., led by Dimon himself at JPM, is backing Trump's rebuilding of the US. The Fed has shifted to supporting that rebuild by focusing on labor, and the US is retaining the dollar as the world's unit of account, without having to be the world's liquidity engine on their terms. That is truly breathtaking.

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