Thank you @dimartinobooth for this note about Powell's "Higher calling" which supersedes the day-to-day politics of the economic data. It's the pain that is needed to fix what's broken.
— Tom Luongo (Head Sneetch) (@TFL1728) July 25, 2024
2 minutes to say volumes. https://t.co/w2oxvtnntO
24:00 Jay Powell can spout off and he's actually said you know that he that the job data is overstated. He used that very diplomatic word but until the actual revisions have been made . . . so the third quarter of 2023 revisions that were made that was a swing factor of 800,000 jobs that went missing, the income that was not created by the jobs that did not exist, out of the GDP figures and backing the consumption that did not exist out of the GDP figures, because people weren't if they didn't have jobs they weren't making money. This all takes quarters and quarters and quarters and quarters and years and years and years and years to manifest in the data. So Jay Powell can sit on whatever laurels he wants right now about the first reported prints of certain economic data, and God bless him for doing so, because I think he's got a . . . he's answering a higher call, and that is in a nutshell--we do not have enough time to get into it--the non- banking financial system globally is $240 trillion. The conventional banking system globally is $180 trillion. One is regulated, one is not. So if he can in his career what's left of it through May of 2026 at the Federal Reserve, if he can press forward with regulations that will finally begin to regulate the non-banks, then he should say that the economy, the consumer, the job market, that all of it is stronger than what it needs to be. The only way to smoke out these kingpins of private equity is to say the economy is strong and therefore keep interest rates higher than they otherwise would be. And we see this in REITs, Real Estate Investment Trusts, throwing up gates and preventing redemptions and buildings trading for 23 cents on the dollar higher for longer than anybody in the non-banking sector then their worst nightmare would have dictated it's the only way to smoke them out and to press through with something called Basel III Endgame, a new set of regulations that will begin to rein in these Cowboys of Finance who live outside of the purview of regulators and make their own rules.
