If you're still waiting for that transitory inflation to end, it could be a while. Fresh CPI numbers just came out, and they were hot once again. As Bloomberg puts it, "Obviously this is very bad news for Joe Biden, since we are starting to get into election territory."
First the numbers. March CPI was 4.6% annualized while core CPI, which excludes food and gas, came in at 4.4% annualized. The fed's latest darling statistics, so-called super core CPI, which takes housing out of the core, turned in a horrifying 8% annualized. This marks the 5th month of rising inflation, starting back in those sweet days of October back when CPI was just 0.9% annualized, a simpler time after which they flipped to marching up month after bitter month even as the FED bragged about its progress. This latest number was important because it probably closed the Fed's last hope for a rate cut this year since at some point they can't cut anymore because it would be blatant election interference. So obvious even the FED wouldn't dare, at least it never has. In fact, Fed guru, Larry Summers, thinks the Fed's next move could be rate hikes, so soft landing canceled. On the ground, that means 7% mortgages and 24% credit card rates are here to stay, along with a frozen housing market and millennials splitting Ramen with roommates instead of getting married. The big guys on Wall Street still have plenty of money, of course; do not worry about them. They've salted it away at 3% during the pandemic or they're still tapping into trillions of cash sloshing around because Wall Street is paid by the Fed to park it there. As for the broader economy, higher rates mean more bleeding out as the productive economy and native workers continue being gutted, leaving deficit spending and illegals to carry the headline spending and the headline job numbers that keep the illusion going even as the real economy transforms to government spending, government workers, and government welfare checks. As for the rest of the world, a Fed locked into high rates puts pressure on every country in the world, since higher U.S. rates drain potentially trillions out of their local confetti and into the U.S. Indeed within minutes of this CPI number, the yen plunged to nearly 153; the Euro lost a full penny, and China certainly dusting off the devaluation playbook, given it will be their last chance if Trump wins. Now if China does devalue, it puts Chinese dumping on turbo, targeting what's left of American manufacturing.
At the beginning of the year just for short months ago, traders on Wall Street were predicting up to seven rate cuts this year. In a glorious pirouette of that fabled soft landing, instead, we are now starting down the barrel of no rate cuts at all. In fact, we've even got rate hikes on the table and the reason is simple: the FED did not fix inflation, they didn't make a dent in federal spending; it just continued; in fact, it accelerated. Essentially, the FED took supply chain unwinds and post-lockdown reopening as a magic bullet for the easy out, and they abandoned the field hoping for the best. So far this has played out exactly how it did last time the FED abandoned the job when oil fell in the 70s they got a second win for inflation that last time. Anyway, turned out to be almost impossible to kill
