Monday, January 30, 2023

Vince Lanci on Gold & Silver as Money

6:20  Silver will be valued as money, I mean tier-one asset.  

7:00  All the buying of silver by India, probably not just for India but also for Russia, since they are key trading partners in the de-coupling in the building of BRICS. 

Your economy is dependent on what you do with oil.  

Sergey Glaziev, the Russian equivalent of Zoltan Pozsar.  Their comments mirrored each other in a strange way.  Pozsar stopped talking about gold, and Glaziev was yacking it up even more.  Then they started quoting each other.  

Then Pozsar wrote a big piece in December on gold and oil.

Then on January 21, Glaziev writes a post extolling the virtues of gold, massive "gold recognition as money" in Golden Ruble 3.0.  [This could assist.]

9:30  Then on January 27, 2023, he sees this working paper put out by the IMF on January 27, 2023. 

Gold (along with silver) has been the core of the global financial system for millennia, an equivalent, an honest measure of the value of paper money and assets.  Now the gold standard is considered anachronistic.  It was canceled in its final form half a century ago (the United States announced the "temporary" closing of the "golden window" at Bretton Woods in 1944. 

They've put a paper out telling us that they've remonetized gold. It's done.  It's over.  He never mentioned silver before.  Pozsar put out 3 articles in a month, so they're rushing things.  

What does gold being remonetized mean for silver?  The BRICS are moving to a gold-backed decentralized Central Bank Digital Currency with gold on the blockchain.  Gold on a blockchain, gold-backing currencies, whether it be the Yuan or the Ruble.  Those currencies will be guaranteed, whether it be soft or hard, by gold, kind of like the Swiss Franc was not too ling ago.  

So what happens next?  Silver.  Because no other commodity will be used, assuming for this moment, no other commodity will be used to "go in the basket," it'll just be gold right now.  Let's assume that silver will not go in the basket.  And I've contended before that silver's industrial use makes it unable to go in the basket.  But here's the exceptions.  The higher silver goes in price, the more difficult it is to use in industry.  That's the first reason.  For example, if gold was a lot cheaper and you use it instead of copper for wiring, why is not gold a lot cheaper?  Because it's so f@$!ing rare.  

If silver were to go up in price, it would be cost prohibitive to be used in industry.  What would happen then?  It would become a pure monetary metal.  Not predicting it'll happen tomorrow, not fully tomorrow, but as the price of silver goes up it becomes used less industry.  What ends up happening is as the price of silver rises, it will start to appreciate and approach the natural ratio of gold in the mining world.  What's that level, 16 to 1?  One of the levels that people discuss all the time. 

1.  There will be no fungible commodities in the Bretton Woods basket. 

2.  It will include a monetary substitute for the dollar, presumably gold.  Nothing else fits it as perfectly.  The close second to gold is silver. 

Commodities become more valued based on their usefulness, and if they're not useful, they get valued based on their rarity.  Silver, which up until now, has been the worst of both world's, right?  It's sort of like gold because it's precious; it's sort if like copper because it's industrial, but it's not a specialty item.  So in this world it gets lost in the shuffle.  It can't be pitched as a one-dimensional item. It's a little bit of everything so that makes it get list in this world if specialization.  But as the world changes, it will go from a world of specialization to "silver is the Goldilocks metal."  It's very monetary.  It's very industrial.  It's very high-end, therefore it's economically important to grow an economy and it's economically almost ideal to use as a store if economic energy.  

1.  No consumer commodities in Bretton Woods 3. 

2.  Gold is money: a) because of its neutrality, b) because of its high price, c) and because of its complete uselessness.

3.  Because gold is now an official remonetized store of value, it's also going to be a medium of exchange, its scarcity affects its price.  Which means that everything in the same family starts to snap into place ratio-wise based on scarcity.  Ratio of how much gold there is on the earth will determine the price.  How much gold is there?  Everybody needs money, everybody needs gold.  Therefore, if gold is the very bottom of the extra pyramid again, then silver is just a quarter step above it.  Which that as the world reprices gold based on its rarity and usefulness in growing economies, it's going to price silver more in line with its scarcity and usefulness in storing energy for the economy or growing the economy.  Because silver does not get destroyed, it's like gold. Because silver can be used to grow an economy, it's like copper.  When the BRICS' gold-backed currency is launched in their SWIFT competing product, Enbridge, when that happens what you're going to see is a couple different things in silver.  

18:33. 

1.  As things are priced more in line with their intrinsic value and scarcity in nature, the price of silver must rise relative to the price of gold.  

2.  As gold becomes even more scarce, because banks are holding it, what's going to happen is people won't be able to get gold.  They're going to get the second-best thing, silver.  Hence, silver as the poor man's gold.  Silver will be hoarded by Indians, Chinese, Americans.  It'll ve hoarded by the public as the next best thing because they can't get their hands on gold.  Because there's not enough investible gold out there.

Finally, and this is not going to happen tomorrow, what's going to happen eventually technological uses for silver are going to increase and as crazy as that is it's going to make the price go up even more.  Anyway, gold is money.  Gold isn't just money as a store of value, gold is becoming a medium of exchange again.  Which means you have to transfer, or at least acknowledge that it's there to be used as money.  And guess what?  If gold is a medium of exchange,then you're probably going to have a de facto bimetallic monetary system in the east.  That's why India is buying all that silver.  That's why all this silver is being taken off the market.  The BRICS have decided no fungible commodities in their basket.  That means, boom, gold.  Then after all the gold us off the market, taking it to an extreme, and you want to buy gold and I want to buy gold, and we can't, and it's a $1,000 higher, what are we going to buy?  Buy silver.  That's how it works; that's how it's worked since the beginning of time.  And if silver were a little more scarce, it would trade at an even higher ratio.  But silver is also industrial applicable.  That's it.  Gold is fully monetized again.  It's a store of value. It's about to be launched on a blockchain-backed product that will allow it to be a medium of exchange, meaning this is my gold, you can't touch it.  It's used for money, it goes back and forth on a current account, which means "Oh, Shit!  What are we going to have for money?  What are we going to have?  We can't have any gold anymore.  There's no more gold left." All the banks  have it.  China confiscates it.  The U.S. taxes it.  You can't own gold so easily, and that's where silver comes in.  Silver is going to explode when this happens.  The dollar is the titanic.  And the iceberg is ahead if us, and our captain has been asleep for years or didn't care.  But it doesn't matter how much he cuts the wheel now, you're not going to avoid running into that iceberg.  And when that happens, it's over It's going to happen.  It may be slowed down.  It may be sped up.  It may be protected from with cushions and mattresses, meaning silver and gold.  Price is irrelevant from this point going forward.  

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