Thursday, June 29, 2023

Prigozhin wasn't trying to replace Putin. He was trying to draw attention to Putin's generals and the execution of the war

Thank you to Lew Rockwell's "Col. Douglas MacGregor,"  and to Natalie Brunell, whose video is titled, "Col Macgregor & Natalie Brunell: The Russian Army Has Finished It."

Prigozhin is an individual as you know that is very flamboyant and very outspoken.  He has had lots of opportunities to say good things he's also said some stupid things and he's being viewed widely inside the senior ranks of the Russian army as a double-edged sword.  Obviously, Wagner has done a brilliant job, and Wagner is viewed inside Russia in much the same way that the French Foreign Legion is viewed inside France. Certainly they have foreigners in their ranks, and, yes, they have convicted criminals that on certain conditions were allowed to serve.  But on the whole, they are they're seen as fiercely loyal to the Russian State and they are, and just like the French Foreign Legion they fight extremely well and no one in France will ever criticize the French Foreign Legion.  And I think you have a similar situation in Russia right now.  The Wagner Group is extraordinarily popular, so is Prigozhin.  Lots of Russians look to him for inspiration.  He is seen as someone who wants to war an unrelenting war with the Ukrainian State.  He wants this man, Zelenskyy, gone.  He and his fighters are seen as part of this determined Russian effort to destroy this enemy force in the Ukraine.  So that everything that happens has to be understood against that backdrop.  Secondly, Prigozhin of late has had some serious problems with the Russian high command; there are legal issues involved with the Wagner Group.  Originally, it was designed exclusively for use overseas but obviously, it's being used domestically.  And over time, the military has expressed an interest, I'm talking about the very senior ranks, particularly the Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff, in breaking this Wagner organization up, which is something that Mr. Prigozhin didn't want to do.  Thirdly, Prigozhin has been unreasonably hostile towards the high command.  On the other hand, some of his criticism is widely shared inside Russia.  The criticism is that he's not only been inadequately supplied, which is open to debate, but also that this war is not being prosecuted with the level of ferocity that it deserves.  He doesn't even like the use of the words "special military operation."  He wants a declared war.  He wants the nation to mobilize.  Now, Putin knows it and they've known each other for some time.  I'm reluctant to use the word "coup" because I don't think Prigozhin ever set out to to displaced Putin. I think he was trying to get Putin's attention.  I think he went too far, and you had the potential for real bloodshot with this small force of 3,000 or 4,000 that was going to Moscow.  But I think the Hope was that he could somehow or another reach Putin's ears, getting him to understand that his senior leaders are not what they should be.  Whether or not that's true that's a different issue, but I think that was Prigozhin's  principle goal.  I don't think he saw himself as rising to the top to replace Putin at all.  So I think a lot of the Wagner troops that went with him said what we're doing is we're going to rescue this man, Putin, from his generals; we're going to get him to understand what's really happening.  Now there are others who will dispute that I think Alexander Mercouris [at the Duran] and his friends, who do a wonderful job by the way of reporting, don't share that view.  But my sources see things differently, and so do I.  

Putin is not Stalin.  Russia is not the Soviet Union.  If anything, Putin is much closer to a Czar then he is to anything else.  And he had the opportunity to arrest Prigozhin and the rest of these troops and execute them, and he very quickly decided not to do so.  First, because of the reasons I cited at the outset.  He realizes these men are Russian patriots.  They have fought very, very hard for Russia.  Second, he's not really threatened because he had 30,000 troops in Moscow.  He's got control.  Nobody joined this.  No one was interested in supporting this, so he's not really threatened.  And Alexander Lukashenko, president of Belarus since the office was created in 1994, has known Prigozhin for at least 20 years.  All three men know each other, and I think Luke said, "Look, let me pick this man up and bring him to Russia and we'll keep him under wraps."  And Putin decided that he could be lenient.  I don't think it reflects his weakness; I think it speaks a lot to his strengths.  So this is now over.  

The real question is, was the message received?  Does Putin understand that he really does need to shake up the high command? Does he now understand that the Russian people want an end to this war?  Does he understand that the Russian military is an army sitting in Ukraine waiting to attack and end this thing?  There's something else lurking in the background that your viewers need to keep in mind that I think was also on Prigozhin's mind though I can't prove it.

Zelenskyy has talked of late several times about attacking the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.  And that's a very dangerous thing, because it could conceivably radiate and cause terrible destruction from radiation if one of the reactors was destroyed.  If Zelenskyy has been pushing it, Budanov who works for him and runs the intelligence side of the house in Ukraine has been actively advocating for it.  

All the time almost from the very beginning there has been a concern in Moscow about the potential for a dirty bomb and that this dirty bomb implemented by the Ukrainians obviously with this nuclear power plant could be then presented as a false flag, because ultimately people in Washington, the president, Lindsay Graham, and Democratic Senator from Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal just sponsored this legislation which would trigger an automatic war with Russia under such circumstances.  

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