Tuesday, July 26, 2022

When you're losing, when you're desperate, when things arent going your way, well then you have to change the rules: a recession is not a recession

Wealth generated through debt is costing us time.  It's borrowed time.  It's borrowed wealth.

10:40. Haven't had real GDP for 13 years because they have to print $14 of $28's worth of debt to get a $1's worth of GDP growth.  That's not growth.  That's$27's worth of loss.  

11:20. GDP growth based on government debt is not growth.  Because remember, GDP is Gross National Spending. It's not Gross National Product.  That's a BS term too.  That's also another one of these euphemisms for horse****.  It's just gross national spending.  We roughly total how much money we spend and say we outputted that much.  That's not the truth when government spending is $.25 on every dollar we spend . . . and the government is running a massive budget deficit. It's not growth; it's just not.  Real growth comes from savings and the multiplication of win-win transactions in the open market.  Real wealth comes from the saving of time through the application of individuals' comparative advantage, individuals' or firms' comparative advantage.  I'm better at making shoes, and you're better at making pottery.  We trade.  I save a couple of hours making you shoes, and you save me a couple of hours making me some dinner plates.  Wealth is a measure of stored time.  Wealth generated through debt is costing us time.  It's borrowed time.  It's borrowed wealth. 

13:15. GDP is just spending.  That's all that it is but it says nothing about the quality of the spending.  If we spend the money on Ukrainian hookers and bullets . . . does that constitute growth?  What happens when we run out of debt that we can sell to spend on Ukrainian hookers and bullets?  And all the people involved in the supply chain to produce to keep the Ukrainian hookers and bullet makers in business?  What happens to them when we run out of the ability to issue debt.  It's called mal-investment.  And when the money has been badly invested we wind up in a boom in terms of GDP growth that is unsustainable, it's built on debt, it's built on the mispricing of risk, it's built on interest rates being wrong.  It alters the structure of production across the entire economy.  It overproduces bullets and Ukrainian hookers as opposed to roads and food, like things that people actually want.  When you alter the structure of production like that eventually you run out of time.  You run out of actual resources that are actually available.  The prices of the resources that are available end up going up.  

 

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