Why most people who now die with COVID in England have been vaccinated
Don’t think of this as a bad sign, it’s exactly what’s expected from an effective but imperfect jab
by David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
Consider, if you will some of the statements in this article. It's hard to tell where one's journalistic integrity fails to meet the ethical role of guardian of the people. This article is replete with sentences that should raise an eyebrow, sentences that contrast the official narrative of the vaccines for which none of the vaccine manufacturers are held liable for any untoward side effects, like death or crippling. In this context, death is moot to the vaccine manufacturers who've been granted immunity by their government regulations.
A MailOnline headline on 13 June read: “Study shows 29% of the 42 people who have died after catching the new strain had BOTH vaccinations.” In Public Health England’s technical briefing on 25 June, that figure had risen to 43% (50 of 117), with the majority (60%) having received at least one dose.
If 29% of the automobiles belonging to GM failed their brakes or seat belts, wouldn't there be a recall? Why then do vaccines get a pass? I guess if you can declare "emergency" status about this or that, it also has the effect of canceling critical faculties. Under the emergency authorization, the products are held to a lesser standard apparently. And revision, like moving the goalposts is now vaccine manufacturers' perogative. But I thought they were experts? Shut up. But that 29% rose to 43%. Still, no one bats an eye.
It could sound worrying that the majority of people dying in England with the now-dominant Delta (B.1.617.2) variant has been vaccinated. Does this mean the vaccines are ineffective? Far from it, it’s what we would expect from an effective but imperfect vaccine, a risk profile that varies hugely by age and the way the vaccines have been rolled out.
Consider the hypothetical world where absolutely everyone had received a less than perfect vaccine. Although the death rate would be low, everyone who died would have been fully vaccinated.
This is just astounding. It's like by hiding behind graphs and statistics, the reporters have flipped medical logic on its head. Bye, bye medical and journalistic ethics.
The vaccines are not perfect.
Isn't that a relief?
PHE estimates two-dose effectiveness against hospital admission with the Delta infections at around 94%. We can perhaps assume there is at least 95% protection against Covid-19 death, which means the lethal risk is reduced to less than a twentieth of its usual value.
But the risk of dying from Covid-19 is extraordinarily dependent on age: it halves for each six to seven-year age gap.
Then why lockdown people of working age, students, close schools, libraries, and the entire population for 16 months?
This means that someone aged 80 who is fully vaccinated essentially takes on the risk of an unvaccinated person of around 50 – much lower, but still not nothing, and so we can expect some deaths.
Really? This doesn't sound like the cure is better than the illness. Give me COVID or give me death?
The PHE report also reveals that nearly a third of deaths from the Delta variant is of unvaccinated people over 50, which may be surprising given high vaccine coverage; for example, OpenSAFELY estimates more than 93% among the 65-69s. But there are lower rates in deprived areas and for some ethnicities and communities with limited coverage will continue to experience more than their fair share of loss.
Oh, that's encouraging. Can you imagine your doctor giving you this prognosis for your chemotherapy?
Coverage and effectiveness are important numbers for assessing vaccination programs. It is better to look at cool analysis by analysts, rather than hot takes on social and other media.
Okay, so where are your cool numbers from analysts? MIA, it appears.
David Spiegelhalter is chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge. Anthony Masters is a statistical ambassador for the Royal Statistical Society.
Now we're learning that 50% of Israeli adults infected by new COVID, or Delta variants, were vaccinated from COVID-19.
Nothing to get too worried about but....
— Rob Schneider (@RobSchneider) June 27, 2021
Half of Adults Infected in Latest COVID-19 Outbreak Were Fully Vaccinated: Israeli Official https://t.co/C25jgqtIlh
Can we assume this is occurring wherever vaccines are being injected?
